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BVOL is a token representing MOVE contract positions (and a flat BTC position to offset the difference between BVOL/iBVOL), which means constant theta decay over a basket full of straddles.
So it's gonna trend down, forever. Not sure which MOVE contracts are included but...
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...it seems that the weekly contracts ought to have the largest effect on BVOL/iBVOL. So you're looking for a move large enough in magnitude to raise the IV level of the bitcoin market, not a small pump.
Remember, vol is mean-reverting and in a tight vol range, theta is a bitch.
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Why it even listed then. Coulda been the greatest short ever
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It's still a useful tool, kinda like straddles. Just gotta be real careful with the timing, otherwise you lose.
Better as a hedging tool imo
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Does this mean IBVOL is in an uptrend forever?
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Best I can figure. Both trends will get pretty volatile at times, but yeah the general trend *should* be up in perpetuity if I understand everything correctly.
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Then that’s the easiest play of all time lol. Long term, especially in a bull market, you’re garuanteed to walk away with a profit
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That's my presumption. I haven't taken a position though, because it seems a bit too good to be true, and I want to ensure that I completely understand what I'm trading, or potentially missing. The exact basket of MOVE contracts included isn't specified anywhere I can find.
DYOR
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(not investment advice!)
1) BVOL goes up if people's predictions of future vol increase
2) IBVOL goes up if they decrease
Right now BTC vol is low, so people think it'll increase. Each day it doesn't, IBVOL goes up and BVOL goes down.
If vol _does_ go up, it'll go way up.
This help article describes the BVOL/iBVOL tokens, but doesn't mention exactly what the underlying MOVE basket is, any chance we can get additional information on which contracts are included/when they roll over?
help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/artic
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Thank you for the response btw, I really appreciate the level of communication. Not found @ most other exchanges.
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