Here's the PredictIt markets for each state and the overall presidential market. The state markets imply Biden wins (ignoring for a moment that Dem includes more than Biden). Can one construct an arb here?
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Not quite an arb: median vs mean electoral votes. Could be that each state is 70% Biden, but either he wins them all or loses 51% in which case he'd win less than 1/2 the time.
I'm not sure I follow. Predictit is just assigning the states as D if price > 50. Then they're summing up those D states' electoral votes to get 290. They're not showing any means. Maybe I misinterpreted what you're saying