It's a good question! Most will probably die off, especially ones with nothing special. Many will survive in niche markets--regionally licensed exchanges e.g.
Some have loyal customers.
And many have lots of runway--can last another few years trying to make it work.
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I've been thinking: if there's no product differentiation, why some of the second-tier exchange still exist today? I get it when people say certain exchange has its hardcore community, or their IEO last year was popular, but how about now? What's their outlook in a year or 2?
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