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11) And then, when things were teetering on the edge, with quarterly premiums at -15%....... BitMEX went down for maintenance.

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12) BTC rallied without the gigantic sell wall of the BitMEX liq. And even more than that--BTC rallied, so fewer people *had* to be liquidated..... Creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we could will BTC up above $5k, maybe then it would no longer *need* to go down.

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13) So why did BitMEX go down for maintenance? And why was their liq engine so aggressiveness today? Was it organic?

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14) Or did BitMEX realize that they had a choice? They could liquidate BTC down to 0..... Or they could go down for an hour, let BTC rally, release some of the liq pressure, and hopefully catch a positive feedback loop removing the need to ever liq the BTC.

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15) Note that Deribit was playing a similar role, and went down at the same time.

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16) Anyway probably this is wrong, and probably it really was just maintenance. But maybe not. Maybe BitMEX realized the position it was in: an insane amount of leveraged positions, no liquidity, and no prime brokers to allow arbitrage to save us.

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17) (By which I mean--people couldn't buy on BitMEX unless they had BTC physically there.... And then they'd risk themselves getting liquidated in the cascade, with none of their short hedges offsetting their risk engine, and a congested blockchain preventing topping up.)

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18) It's a pretty out there theory. But TBH I think I might believe it.

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Occums Razor: people with negative deltas on mex during the maintenance hedged by buying spot. No need to become a conspiracy theorist :)