Conversation

b.biddles
@thalamu_
@SBF_Alameda
said he watched that capitulation in real time, and felt someone was “forcing long liquidations.” It seems he was saying the move was artificial. So if you said “long,” too were historically right... but if Alameda is right, you may have been “technically” wrong.
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b.biddles
@thalamu_
So now we’ve overcompensated, and reverted to the mean. But if the Nov. 2018 capitulation *was* manipulated... then the question is: what would the market have done organically at 6.4? It seems Alameda thought we’d hold or continue up. And I take his input on the market over mine
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b.biddles
@thalamu_
So what does that mean about today? I believe now we are renegotiating this range. The market, in its efficiency, has reconstructed this final battle. Was 6.4 supposed to fall? Or was it “supposed” to be the new bottom? Not sure. Eager to find out.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@thalamu_
Really enjoyed this series! FWIW I think that I'd probably use 'artificial' or 'liquidation driven' rather than 'manipulated' for the drop to ~$4k. 'Manipulated' sort of implies it was intentional, whereas I think it's totally possible it was *accidental* liquidations.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
and
@thalamu_
But yeah the rise up to 14k this year kinda felt like the flip side of that--lots of hopium, all the shorts got liquidated, huge gains.... But not actually clear fundamentals *or inflows* driving the rise beyond the $7k-ish range.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
and
@thalamu_
It was a weird feeling--like not many people wanted to be short and those that did all got liquidated, but not actually a huge amount of buyers above $10k.
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b.biddles
@thalamu_
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
and
@SBF_Alameda
Hey Sam, thx a lot for the clarification, nuance, & insight. It was fallacious of me to connect “liquidation driven” with “manipulated.” Is it possible for you to disclose your net position at that time? Also, how you assessed the “low inflows” post 10k? Understood if you can’t!
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@thalamu_
Low inflows: we saw very few signs of huge sustained buyers. Unlike 2017 where Japan, Korea, etc. showed $100m of net buyers every day. Once buy-side liquidations ended, not much sustaining the pop in price.
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