Okay, here’s wtf this is. But there’s nuance and it’s unsure what the right answer was. It depends who you believe about $btc price action; what happened, or . Thread:
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said he watched that capitulation in real time, and felt someone was “forcing long liquidations.” It seems he was saying the move was artificial. So if you said “long,” too were historically right... but if Alameda is right, you may have been “technically” wrong.
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So now we’ve overcompensated, and reverted to the mean. But if the Nov. 2018 capitulation *was* manipulated... then the question is: what would the market have done organically at 6.4? It seems Alameda thought we’d hold or continue up. And I take his input on the market over mine
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Really enjoyed this series!
FWIW I think that I'd probably use 'artificial' or 'liquidation driven' rather than 'manipulated' for the drop to ~$4k. 'Manipulated' sort of implies it was intentional, whereas I think it's totally possible it was *accidental* liquidations.
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Yup basically: things go down a bit for normal reasons. This liquidates some long position, which drives markets down more--liquidating more positions in a chain reaction. No one *wanted* to get liquidated, no one *intentionally* caused it--they cause each other.