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Okay, here’s wtf this is. But there’s nuance and it’s unsure what the right answer was. It depends who you believe about $btc price action; what happened, or

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Purely based on these candlesticks and volume — long or short? And no, it’s not recent btc pa. Irrelevant what / when it is. Pure candlestick analysis. Also, why is that your answer?

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The chart in the above RT was an inverted 3M $btc chart from 2018, just before the November capitulation.

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said he watched that capitulation in real time, and felt someone was “forcing long liquidations.” It seems he was saying the move was artificial. So if you said “long,” too were historically right... but if Alameda is right, you may have been “technically” wrong.

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Alameda also calls the 2019 bull run “mean reversion” after that capitulation.

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So now we’ve overcompensated, and reverted to the mean. But if the Nov. 2018 capitulation *was* manipulated... then the question is: what would the market have done organically at 6.4? It seems Alameda thought we’d hold or continue up. And I take his input on the market over mine

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So what does that mean about today? I believe now we are renegotiating this range. The market, in its efficiency, has reconstructed this final battle. Was 6.4 supposed to fall? Or was it “supposed” to be the new bottom? Not sure. Eager to find out.

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Really enjoyed this series! FWIW I think that I'd probably use 'artificial' or 'liquidation driven' rather than 'manipulated' for the drop to ~$4k. 'Manipulated' sort of implies it was intentional, whereas I think it's totally possible it was *accidental* liquidations.

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But yeah the rise up to 14k this year kinda felt like the flip side of that--lots of hopium, all the shorts got liquidated, huge gains.... But not actually clear fundamentals *or inflows* driving the rise beyond the $7k-ish range.

4:25 AM · Dec 29, 2019Twitter Web App

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It was a weird feeling--like not many people wanted to be short and those that did all got liquidated, but not actually a huge amount of buyers above $10k.

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Hey Sam, thx a lot for the clarification, nuance, & insight. It was fallacious of me to connect “liquidation driven” with “manipulated.” Is it possible for you to disclose your net position at that time? Also, how you assessed the “low inflows” post 10k? Understood if you can’t!

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I wasn’t around during the first major bull run, but the whole way up to 14K, you could feel the frenzy. We’re coming down from that not. My theory is that price has to get low enough to get people excited again and create another run and followed by sell off.

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There’s always talks about whales, institutions buying etc, but most of crypto is speculative & and there is smart money involved, but I always ask, who are they selling to?

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Also think a lot of the run up was driven by retail fomoers entering the market, then getting cleaned out and they leave. Some stick it out and learn the lessons and become great traders, but without new blood entering, it just becomes good/great traders against each other