Conversation

OK time to rant about prices and market cap. 1) What is up with this 'only 21m people can own 1 BTC' meme? You could equally say '10^15 people can each own 1 SAT'.
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2) We could use BTC, 100 BTC, or 0.0001 BTC as units, and it doesn't change fundamentals. Stocks split all the time; everyone ends up with 2x as many shares each worth 1/2 as much. It has no real impact other than making it easier to type the price in a table with other stocks.
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3) It's true BTC isn't inflationary but USD inflation is only a few % and you get interest. So you can either hold BTC in a wallet or get paid a few % to buy USD govt bonds.
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4) It's market cap that matters, not price or supply on their own. The real question is what's worth more: a) All BTC b) 2% of all gold c) 10% of Canada's GDP d) Mastercard e) Jeff Bezos f) 20% of money US spent on food in 2019 All of those are valued at ~$150b (+-50%)
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5) FWIW using a-f to price BTC has been helpful for me. Makes it seem like $10k is a somewhat reasonable price, $100k if crypto really takes off in society, and $0 if it fizzles out. (Or anything in-between.) But current market cap is maybe in the right ballpark!
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Everything below the above tweet is assessed through the prism of the wrong economic model. You're attempting to qualify your argument using keynesian, modern day price mechanisms. Of which bitcoin has approx zero correlation with.
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You're absolutely right about scarcity - which into on itself is not enough to drive price - but you're forgetting about stock-flow. After Bitcoin's next halving, SF will be greater than gold's. If market cap increases to even 5% the size of gold's, you're looking at min 30k XBT
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