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Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز
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Rym Momtaz ريم ممتازOvjeren akaunt

@RymMomtaz

@POLITICOEurope France Correspondent: Macron and the EU, Russia, US, NATO. (ex:Syria, ISIS, JCPOA). Wit & self-deprecation appreciated. rmomtaz atPoliticoDotEu

Vrijeme pridruživanja: studeni 2011.

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    1. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 3. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      1/ Why did Iran militarily escalate in the Gulf lately? Shooting down a US drone, seizing tankers, bombing Saudi oil infrastructure? It wanted to internationalise the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is where most of the world's shipping transits. The US chose not to go there.

      226 replies 2.849 proslijeđenih tweetova 6.153 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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    2. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 3. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      2/ US also held its own line: a US person killed meant retaliation. It targeted the militia that did the attack. It was reciprocal, but also punitive to send a message. Iran-backed militia escalated against US embassy. US managed the attack, didn't blow everything up. #Soleimani

      12 replies 302 proslijeđena tweeta 1.193 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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    3. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 3. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      3/ US responded to embassy attack, and many lower level attacks by Iranian-backed militias in run-up, by killing, in Iraq, the head of all Iranian-backed anything #Soleimani. US may have just restored some escalation dominance. Whether it's part of cogent strategy is different Qu

      10 replies 293 proslijeđena tweeta 1.114 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    4. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 3. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      4/ Real US reckless action or declaration of war wld have been attacking Iranian soil. This admin determined that the cost of tolerating Soleimani alive had now exceeded the benefits of not killing him. We must wait and see whether that was the right call, no one knows today.

      14 replies 387 proslijeđenih tweetova 1.392 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 3. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      5/ The most important part of Soleimani's killing, isn't his killing (as big as that is), it is the deep US intelligence penetration around Iran's most important military leader that it revealed. Signals and human intel. This is what is going to spook the Iranian camp the longest

      02:33 - 3. sij 2020.
      • 1.046 proslijeđenih tweetova
      • 3.063 oznake „sviđa mi se”
      • Theodora E.H. ن Andy Witecki Cedê Silva Aakanksha_S Brandon Tracy Turner GJPik Lenae Fitzmaurice ANDREW BAXTER
      1.046 proslijeđenih tweetova 3.063 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
        1. Novi razgovor
        2. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 3. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          6/ Why did US claim the #Soleimani kill, instead of following the Israeli ambiguity playbook? US and Israel have different roles and capacities. The US is the mightiest military power around, owning attacks cld be part of deterrence, showing force, restoring escalation dominance

          21 reply 283 proslijeđena tweeta 1.198 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        3. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 3. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          7/ What happens next: let's be clear, no one knows for sure, even those who will decide some of the next steps. The Iranian regime is not suicidal, it is strategic, calculating (even if it miscalculates sometimes), so likelihood of an all-out direct US-Iran war is low.

          9 replies 417 proslijeđenih tweetova 1.365 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        4. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 3. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          8/ Khamenei promised response, it must be strong enough to save face internally, for a regime already strained + facing popular dissent, and also be calibrated to avoid provoking a US response inside Iran. Iran response will show whether deterrence restored #Soleimani

          8 replies 274 proslijeđena tweeta 983 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        5. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 3. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          9/ The myth of invincibility that Iran built around Soleimani was a huge recruitment tool, it may also now turn out to be a double-edged sword. How does its most valiant warrior, its most effective US challenger, get picked off so precisely by the US?

          8 replies 398 proslijeđenih tweetova 1.437 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        6. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 3. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          10/ Concern for US military, diplo personnel, and citizens, in the region is legit. But allowing it to dictate policy plays into Iran's hands which weaponises Western sensitivity to human loss, and war weariness, to further destabilise the region unchecked. #Soleimani

          10 replies 261 proslijeđeni tweet 1.014 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        7. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 3. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          11/ There are many so-called anti-imperialists who always criticise Western intervention but justify Iranian/Russian intervention. Iran is not a legit actor in Iraq/Syria/Leb/Yemen. Its crimes there are no less reprehensible than those by the US or colonialists. #Soleimani

          36 replies 508 proslijeđenih tweetova 1.727 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        8. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 3. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          12/ Iran is set to announce its next violations of the JCPOA in next few days. That's another thing to look out for, other than a military retaliation, in wake of today's #Soleimani kill. Will it escalate to the point of affecting break-out time or not?

          69 replies 213 proslijeđenih tweetova 917 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        9. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 5. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceHussain Abdul-Hussain  🇺🇸

          13/ Iraq is not evicting US troops. What happened today was a non-binding resolution by MPs that are beholden to Iran in various ways - and Iran called in those chips. Evicting US requires law+readings+1 yr notice This thread by @hahussain breaks it downhttps://twitter.com/hahussain/status/1213866860254547968?s=20 …

          Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز je dodan/na,

          Hussain Abdul-Hussain  🇺🇸 @hahussain
          Bottom line is, Iraqi parliament vote was an Iranian face-saving measure. Iran is in a bind: If it retaliates without claiming its attack, it does not count as revenge for Soleimani. If Iran claims the attack, regime risks further wrath, in a country whose economy is in free fall
          Prikaži ovu nit
          1 reply 38 proslijeđenih tweetova 75 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        10. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 5. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceHusham Alhashimi هشام الهاشمي

          14/ Iraqi MPs non-binding res asked for Iraq to pull out of anti-ISIS coalition, w/o which ISIS wld still be in Mosul, will more easily return. (this by @hushamalhashimi https://twitter.com/hushamalhashimi/status/1213833944229126145?s=20 …) NATO mtg tmrw, in calls w/Iraq Pres+PM France repeats imp of keeping coalition

          Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز je dodan/na,

          Husham Alhashimi هشام الهاشميOvjeren akaunt @hushamalhashimi
          مجلس النواب يصوت على: الزام الحكومة العراقية بإلغاء طلب المساعدة المقدم منها الى التحالف الدولي، والعمل على انهاء تواجد اي قوات اجنبية في الأراضي، ومنعها من استخدام الاجواء العراقية لاي سبب كان، وتقديم شكوى رسمية الى الامم المتحدة ومجلس الامن ضد امريكا، وحصر السلاح بيد الدولة.
          1 reply 6 proslijeđenih tweetova 27 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        11. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 5. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceRasha Al Aqeedi

          15/ Re:these Iraqi MPs wanting out of anti-ISIS coalition: This below from @RashaAlAqeedi - and I wld add: Iranian-backed militias in Iraq were neither able to prevent ISIS from forming, nor to eliminate it.https://twitter.com/RashaAlAqeedi/status/1213852431504818178?s=20 …

          Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز je dodan/na,

          Rasha Al AqeediOvjeren akaunt @RashaAlAqeedi
          Best part of caretaker PM's speech: "Iraq did not host US troops from 2011-2014 and our ties with the US and other states were not compromised". 2011-2014, the years ISI networks regrouped so successfully that they managed to takeover 1/3 of Iraq.
          1 reply 9 proslijeđenih tweetova 30 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        12. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 5. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceHassan Hassan

          16/ Nasrallah's speech (by remote) attempts to -hedge against Israel jumping into fray (simultaneous fronts = difficult) -rally morale of Iran-backed militias (sign of effect of Solemani killing) => read this from @hxhassan for more:https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1213827757957881856?s=20 …

          Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز je dodan/na,

          Hassan HassanOvjeren akaunt @hxhassan
          The killing of Suleimani is an extraordinary moment even by Middle Eastern standards. His death came amid real & unprecedented challenges to Iran, and he died still trying to deal with them. Which makes it doubly significant. My new piece in @guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/05/soleimani-death-huge-blow-to-iran-plans-for-regional-domination?CMP=share_btn_tw …
          Prikaži ovu nit
          1 reply 10 proslijeđenih tweetova 27 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        13. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 5. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          17/ Nasrallah speech cont'd: -manage expectations: not gonna target high value US person, because no equivalent to Soleimani -give Iran+proxies/affiliates time/flexibility by fixing wide objective of ending US presence in Mideast, (akin to stated goal of liberating Jerusalem)

          1 reply 8 proslijeđenih tweetova 22 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        14. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 5. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          18/ Nasrallah speech cont'd: -attempt to distance Iran axis from any kidnappings of US civilians that may take place. If this happens, expect claim by some unknown group as we've seen in past -says Iran not asking anything of affiliates, but fixes same target: US military

          11 proslijeđenih tweetova 21 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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        15. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 5. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          19/ Nasrallah is 1st major speech of Iran camp post-Soleimani, shows how intrinsic Hezbollah is to Iran network of influence. He's now its highest profile leader, w/bragging rights (Israel 2000/2006, Syria, Yemen). Interesting pic on social media showing him leading Sol in prayer

          1 reply 12 proslijeđenih tweetova 24 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        16. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 5. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          20/E3 FR GER UK stmt "condemned recent attacks on coalition forces in Iraq, gravely concerned by negative role Iran has played in region thru IRGC, Quds force under command of Gen.Soleimani...urgent need for de-escalation...all parties excercise utmost restraint"=>balancing act

          1 reply 6 proslijeđenih tweetova 21 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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        17. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 5. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          21/E3 cont'd: "specifically call on Iran to refrain from further violent action or proliferation, and urge Iran to reverse all measures inconsistent w/JCPOA [classic]... Preservation of [anti-ISIS] coalition is key...urge Iraqi authorities cont providing necessary support"

          1 reply 6 proslijeđenih tweetova 22 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        18. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 6. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          22/ A lot of theatrics and rhetoric from both Iran and US right now. These are important - to a certain extent. Military actions will be better indicators of where we are on the scale of escalation and war. #Soleimani

          8 replies 9 proslijeđenih tweetova 21 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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        19. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 8. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          23/ Iran targeted coalition bases in Iraq➡️didnt escalate by expanding field of confrontation. Bases on alert➡️No US/coalition deaths. Fired own missiles➡️direct response for #Soleimani Khamenei, Zarif stmts after ➡️off-ramp, after all the bluster. Wait to see what Trump does.

          1 reply 10 proslijeđenih tweetova 14 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        20. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 8. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          24/ Iran’s overt response to #Soleimani recalls Hezbollah bombing 🇮🇱 mil vehicles in Shebaa Farms in Sept, after 1st 🇮🇱 op inside 🇱🇧 since 2006 (drones in Beirut suburb) 🇮🇷 using ballistic missiles is noteworthy Now we wait for covert Iranian response. That may take a while.

          1 reply 5 proslijeđenih tweetova 16 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        21. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 8. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          25/ Trump has stepped away from military escalation. Back to new sanctions. And wanting a new deal (his original position) now asking E3+RUS/CHI to leave JCPOA Iran escalated militarily (drone/Abqaiq/tankers) in response to reimposed sanctions. 2nd deterrence test begins now

          1 reply 7 proslijeđenih tweetova 17 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        22. Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز‏Ovjeren akaunt @RymMomtaz 8. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          26/ We are back where we were pre-Kataib Hezbollah killed the US contractor. With question on whether US restored enough deterrence re:how will Iran now handle new sanctions, and whether both US and Iran now more willing to engage in diplomacy. Wait and see. #soleimani

          4 proslijeđena tweeta 15 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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