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Ryan Hill
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Ryan Hill

@RyanReedHill

MIT Economics PhD student ON THE JOB MARKET and researching science and innovation. Living that dad life.

economics.mit.edu/grad/ryanhill
Vrijeme pridruživanja: prosinac 2011.

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    Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
    • Prijavi Tweet

    Hey academics on Twitter: Have you ever been scooped? Do you worry about getting scooped? My job market paper estimates the consequences of getting scooped in science using cool data from structural biology. Let’s do a thread!

    10:45 - 10. stu 2019.
    • 750 proslijeđenih tweetova
    • 1.905 oznaka „sviđa mi se”
    • Arash Hajizadeh Dastjerdi Adam ™ Ford Orr Spiegel Noah Arka Sadhu Rakib David Rushing Dewhurst Seth Shipman johntzwei
    71 reply 750 proslijeđenih tweetova 1.905 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
      1. Novi razgovor
      2. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        The paper is called: Scooped! Estimating Rewards for Priority in Science It’s co-authored with my awesome classmate @carolyn_sms , who is a fantastic collaborator. Look for her on the econ market next year! Paper link: http://economics.mit.edu/files/18001 

        27 proslijeđenih tweetova 110 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      3. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Economists have long characterized the reward system for innovation (patents, academic papers, etc.) as winner-take-all races. This extreme allocation of credit affects how we think about R&D investment, innovation strategy, and the pace and direction of science.

        1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 51 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      4. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        But there is almost no empirical evidence about the actual allocation of rewards in these races. What is the effect of getting scooped? In a close race, how much more credit do we give the “priority” (ie first) publication in terms of journal placement, citations, etc.?

        1 reply 3 proslijeđena tweeta 45 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      5. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Estimating the cost of getting scooped is tricky! The key data problem is selective abandonment. If I get scooped, I may decide to drop the project altogether, or change the paper such that it no longer resembles the original paper.

        2 proslijeđena tweeta 48 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      6. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        We tackle this challenge in a very cool setting called Structural Biology. These folks figure out the shape of proteins in our cells – not a trivial task! They grow proteins into crystals, shoot them with x-rays, then make a model of the structure based on the resulting data.pic.twitter.com/fsaJtqaXuG

        1 reply 4 proslijeđena tweeta 43 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      7. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Before anyone can publish a structure discovery, they are required to “deposit” their findings into the Protein Data Bank (@rcsbPDB ) confidentially. This worldwide repository covers the universe of structure discoveries, and it is the key to solving our empirical problem.

        1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 40 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      8. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Here’s what we do: 1) Link identical projects by different teams using the amino acid sequence that defines the proteins 2) Find cases where the two teams independently deposited around the same time 3) Compare outcomes of winning and scooped projects

        1 reply 4 proslijeđena tweeta 43 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      9. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        These are timelines from our slides that illustrate. We say project A scoops project B if: 1) Team A releases before team B 2) Both teams had deposited before Team A releasespic.twitter.com/eoAQ1R75ef

        1 proslijeđeni tweet 31 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      10. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Here is an example, including the actual structure image produced independently by both teams. Our regression sample is 1,630 races that look something like this.pic.twitter.com/BLh1ubKaB3

        1 proslijeđeni tweet 39 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      11. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        So what do we find? Scooped projects are 2.5% less likely to be published, are 18% less likely to appear in a top journal, and receive 28% fewer citations. Bummer! But are these effects “big” or “small”?

        1 reply 23 proslijeđena tweeta 115 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      12. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Another way to describe the citation result is that scooped papers get 42% of the total citations to both projects. That’s way bigger than the 0% that we usually assume in theoretical models of racing. It’s not winner-take-all, but maybe winner-take-much.

        26 proslijeđenih tweetova 131 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      13. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Since the fear of getting scooped is so prevalent, we compare our findings to scientist perceptions. We surveyed 915 structural biologists and posed a hypothetical priority race. Turns out scientists are very pessimistic about the probability and cost of getting scooped…

        1 reply 4 proslijeđena tweeta 38 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      14. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Respondents think there is a 27% chance of getting scooped between project completion and publication, much higher than the 3-8% chance in our data. They guess that they will only get 26% of the total citations if scooped, much lower than the 42% we find.

        1 reply 16 proslijeđenih tweetova 71 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      15. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Some other interesting results from the paper: Scooped papers are less likely to be downloaded by readers, featured in news articles, cited in Wikipedia, and – you guessed it – mentioned on Twitter dot com. (Data from @altmetric )

        1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 43 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      16. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        The effect of getting scooped varies by pre-existing reputation. This plot shows the citation shares in “mismatched” races between high- and low-reputation teams. Getting scooped has bigger effects if you’re from a low-ranked university or have very little publishing experience.pic.twitter.com/27LYzlyiG1

        14 proslijeđenih tweetova 92 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      17. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Lastly, we look at the effect on careers, and find that in this setting the costs are small, even for novice scientists. Getting scooped lowers citations to future work, but has minimal, if any, effect on publication rates over then next 5 years.

        12 proslijeđenih tweetova 76 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      18. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        So yeah, nobody likes getting scooped. It sucks! Here’s the good news: The evidence we present suggests that scooped projects are still very likely to get published and cited. Also, getting scooped is not a death knell for a fledgling career. Yay!

        46 proslijeđenih tweetova 218 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      19. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        But maybe some bad news? Our next paper considers the efficiency and welfare of scientific racing. We look at objective quality metrics in the PDB and present evidence that racing is associated with lower quality science. Tradeoffs will be discussed!

        1 reply 23 proslijeđena tweeta 165 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      20. Ryan Hill‏ @RyanReedHill 10. stu 2019.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Thanks for reading, please check out the paper, and stay tuned for more research about research. Website link: http://economics.mit.edu/grad/ryanhill 

        11 replies 5 proslijeđenih tweetova 147 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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