Thread: Today I am reporting official all-cause mortality from the state of Madhya Pradesh - with 84.5 million people, it is India’s 5th most populous state. It was also India’s fifth poorest state as of 2020. It is predominantly rural, with just 29% of its population in cities.
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Officially, Madhya Pradesh reported just 4,461 Covid deaths between January 1 and May 31 2021. The excess deaths seen in the same period are over 42 times the reported Covid death toll, though the entire excess death toll is not attributable to Covid.pic.twitter.com/Mmgj7LYya6
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The increase is in Bhopal and Indore yes, but also in smaller cities and rural districtspic.twitter.com/exr6k2gg84
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Some quick takeaways (more detailed to follow later): 1. We shouldn't assume that excess mortality in less developed states will be at the relatively modest scale of that in big cities (Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai)
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2. The second wave struck hard (seen this in Chennai and MP now) so we shouldn't keep relying on some 2020 data that we have to assume that there wasn't a covid-related surge in deaths
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3. The scale of under-reporting suggested from cities like Mumbai and Chennai was modest. But with the caveat that all excess deaths are not from covid, the excess mortality in Apr-May 2021 in MP was *42* times the official covid death toll.
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4 and last. Keep pushing for more data from all states, friends! cc
@muradbanaji@jburnmurdoch@ArielKarlinskyShow this thread
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Hatsoff
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Great work, and hope to see the data on github soon Also, a peak of infections (roughly measured by cases/TPR) in late April seems consistent with a peak of deaths in early/mid May..pic.twitter.com/Ol0uR5JOne
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Yes, this is forcing me to get on GitHub :)
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