There's no fire alarm for artificial general intelligence, so if you're not alarmed by this, nothing will alarm you until it is much, much too late. https://intelligence.org/2019/08/06/august-2019-newsletter/ …pic.twitter.com/GHfSvvkWx7
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accurate intuitions about long term trends. If something will take 20 years it might "feel like" 200, because during year 1 of 20 you will not clearly see a little ticker that says "well done for making 5% of the progress!", you will just see a bunch of problems that seem (4/n)
impossible to solve and totally impenetrable, with little bits of progress around the edges. This is exacerbated in AI by us not having an accurate idea of how capable humans are, which caused @sarahconstantin to kind of be taken aback and notice how dumb humans are when (5/n)
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