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@MunichRe today published their estimates for natural disaster losses in 2021, allowing me to update the time series of global disaster losses as a proportion of global GDP
This thread reports and discusses this update
TL;DR --> Figure belowpic.twitter.com/Z0d1QMq5ol
Munich Re reports ~$270B in total weather and climate disasters losses for 2021, which is 0.28% global GDP Previous 4 years: 2020= $194B, 0.23% 2019= $151B, 0.17% 2018= $150B, 0.18% 2017= $329B, 0.41% 1990-2021 Median= 0.21% Average= 0.23%
Munich Re reports US saw ~$145B of the total global losses (~54% of weather/climate losses) According to FEMA, in 2021 the US should have expected $141B in weather/climate disaster losses In principle, US & global losses are in line with expectationshttps://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1472247466397356034?s=20 …
And here is an update of North American losses as a pct of GDP based on an estimate of 2021 from Munich Re Note: 2020 and 2021 losses were about the same in dollars, but decreased as a pct GDP because GDP increased 2020 to 2021pic.twitter.com/3aPaxUbn0O
Methodological note: Reporting of insured losses are largely consistent across companies, for regulatory reasons Reporting of total losses are not consistent eg. Swiss Re reports $233B in total wx/cx losses for 2021 & Munich Re reports $270B These numbers are much squishier
Elephant in the room: Reinsurance companies have incentives to over-report total losses (i.e., not insured) because that supports their business aims -- the different between insured and total is called the "insurance gap" & explains why the world needs to buy more insurancepic.twitter.com/mW8GiL4bGP
I discussed some of the methodological shenanigans in disaster loss accounting here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2020/01/25/why-you-cant-trust-the-insurance-industrys-secret-science-on-climate-catastrophes/?sh=242031751b39 …
In general @MunichRe @SwissRe have done a good job in reporting disaster losses over decades, but it is probably time for independent evaluation of their proprietary data
Here is a time series of insured vs total losses from @SwissRe suggesting that the "insurance gap" has been slowly closingpic.twitter.com/pq3gky4YZf
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