There are thousands of papers that use scenario "no policy" baselines as if they are predictions (or projections) of our actual future They are not They are models run in a particular state for use in comparing against models run in another state
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Here are the baselines of the SSPs Assuming that they span possible futures (for emissions here), then the use of a subset of them (much less one or two) as more likely than others will introduce profound biases and blindspots into any policy or economic analysispic.twitter.com/DMCeRK69Xt
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The discussion around the RCPs this past week has really opened my eyes to the pervasive misuse of scenarios among intermediate users (those in between the scenario creators and policy makers - eg, in WGS 1, 2, 3 of IPCC)
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Hi Roger, keen to learn more about what you mean here - an you define 'properly'? What is the proper institutional context for their use? By which bodies (public or private) and to what end?
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Thx... by proper use I mean the use of scenarios as scenarios (plausible futures, but not predictive or even forecasts). The IPCC SRES outlined a proper use but the IPCC has deviated severely from that with RCPs and SSPs. There is a lot to say on this, Twitter format not great
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Well, somebody needs to come up with some probabilities! Otherwise how can policy-makers make rational decisions?
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Probabilities! Are you kidding? The only probability they are interested in is whether or not they are going to get re-elected. Reality of climate change or realistic solutions have little or nothing to do with it.
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Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Read Salomon Kroonenberg!
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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The only confusion so-called climate experts have is whether socialism or outright communism is the solution to "climate change"...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8455KEDitpU&t=3s …
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