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    If you’re Sanders, what has to worry you, even if you eke out the popular vote, is that the turnout surge just didn’t happen. Knocking 500,000 donors in one month won’t even equal 50,000 votes.

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    And so Buttigieg, who wants to replace the Electoral College with a popular vote, ran the most effective campaign in Iowa to win its equivalent of the Electoral College: The SDEs that under-represent urban precincts.

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    The spiked Ann Selzer poll: Sanders 22% Warren 18% Buttigieg 16% Biden 13% Actual first alignment results (62% reporting): Sanders 24% Buttigieg 21% Warren 19% Biden 15% A little low on Buttigieg but for a caucus poll, that's *really* good.

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    Amy Klobuchar is right on Joe Biden's heels for fourth place in the final alignment of the popular vote. Biden was nearly doubled by Sanders. Sanders -- 28,220 Buttigieg -- 27,030 Warren -- 22,254 Biden -- 14,176 Klobuchar -- 13,357 This remains with 62% of precincts in.

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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 1 sat

    For all the talk about how Joe Biden would be a broad-based candidate — and would be people’s second choice — with 62 percent reporting, he is the only one among the top four who lost votes between the first and second rounds.

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  6. Worth noting these are not vote %, but % of delegates awarded after round 2, some by *coin toss*. Sanders might have gotten the most initial votes, and Warren was barely 1,200 votes behind Buttigieg in partial data released by Sanders. This Iowa delegate process distorts vote %.

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    As a general proposition, the media organizations aren't usually able to project even fairly competitive races with ~62% counted. If it's extremely representative, maybe in a 4 pt race.

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    Something to keep an eye on: right now Bernie is leading popular vote but Pete has higher percentage of delegates. Like Senate & Electoral College Iowa caucus gives higher % of delegates to small rural counties compared to large urban ones

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  9. This is from England, but illustrates my theory of how Iowans, tortured by years of political over-saturation, might now feel about the caucuses:

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    How much would you have to be paid to put up a Mike Bloomberg for President yard sign (or bumper sticker or sign in your apartment window)?

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    As people who have known me for a long time.... that Democratic party consultants are the reason Democrats lose has been my take for 20+ years. Last night's debacle doesn't surprise me, and poli sci models that presume political parties do what they can to win... are wrong.

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    NEW: Susan Collins told she believes the president has learned a "pretty big lesson" from impeachment and will be "much more cautious" about seeking foreign assistance in the future.

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 4 sata

    Graffiti about me has gone up in Creggan . I am neither a MI5 tout nor a shit stirrer. I am a journalist, working in my city trying to provide for my family. I consider this a threat to my safety. I call on community leaders to help me get this dangerous slur removed now

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    Important: Team Biden says talk it may challenge IA release plans 100% untrue. In the breaking news rush my discussing, even skeptically, incoming from rival campaigns was, in a word, stupid.

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  16. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Our new rule: You may not deceptively share synthetic or manipulated media that are likely to cause harm. In addition, we may label Tweets containing synthetic and manipulated media to help people understand their authenticity and to provide context.

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    We know that some Tweets include manipulated photos or videos that can cause people harm. Today we’re introducing a new rule and a label that will address this and give people more context around these Tweets

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 3 sata

    Dem group behind Shadow distanced itself from the Iowa caucus developer. But they share office space, briefings & resources. The team is made up of former Hillary campaign staff tied to Mayor Pete and have privately expressed hostility to Bernie

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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    It’s sort of a tell that the people who complain the most about “the DNC” cannot correctly identify which things the DNC is and is not involved with.

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    After much deliberation, I have decided that I will not use my presence at a state ceremony to normalize Trump’s lawless conduct & subversion of the Constitution. None of this is normal, and I will not legitimize it. Consequently, I will not be attending the State of the Union.

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