Rob Hager

@Rob_Hager

Private Investor, Former Coach

Culver City, CA
Vrijeme pridruživanja: ožujak 2010.

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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Morning Note: -Payrolls Friday 165k est. -More ugly German data -Thiam pushed out of CS

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    It’s becoming hard to ignore the sense of panic in Hong Kong. This line for a local drugstore stretches around a large block

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 9 sati

    Watch Chinese real estate. Most are not showing properties until end of Feb. Question is the sustainability of this risk-aversion in Chinese populace & what that means for earnings of Chinese developers. This sector is most key (share of GDP & wealth effect) & also very leveraged

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    JPMORGAN slashes its China Q1 GDP forecast to just 1%, on effects .. “more than 5%-pts lower than our pre-outbreak forecast. .. “Overall, we now see the pace of global GDP growth slipping to just 1.3% in 1Q20— half of our forecast prior to the outbreak ..”

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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 16 sati

    The and I have slightly different projections for over the next ten years. I include a recession in that period, but even without it, it takes some really strong assumptions about term premiums to generate a 10yr rate of 3.1%. CBO (above) vs. me (below).

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    sales eased 1.7% to $36.1 billion in December, a level off 5.5% Y/Y and for the year as a whole, down 12.1% from 2018. This is a bellwether and important end-use market for .

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 17 sati

    After a reprieve last week, continuing claims SA and NSA both saw higher year-over-year numbers this morning. This trend is not our friend.

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    (Bloomberg) -- U.S. markets are “utterly and completely unprepared” for an inflationary environment, hedge fund manager Ken Griffin said. “In the United States there is absolutely no preparedness for an inflationary environment,” Griffin said at the Economic Club of New York

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    The Global Citi Economic Surprise Index is at its best level in a couple of years, fwiw:

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 21 sat

    The 5 year rolling average of US productivity is 1.19%. Assuming one half of one percent growth in the labor supply that implies the long term growth rate of around 1.7%.

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    US initial jobless claims fell to 202K last week, the lowest level since April and pushing the 4-week average down to 212K.

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    6. velj

    Top 5 cos = 18% of

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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 22 sata

    US growth +1.4% (below expectations) as output rose 2.5% and hours rose 1.1%. Unit labor costs +1.4% as compensation +2.8%. Overall, productivity growth remains subdued at 1.8% y/y while unit labor costs +2.4% y/y (high since '18) squeezing margins

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    The U.S. Citi Economic Surprise index is climbing toward the most positive since May 2018:

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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 23 sata

    High P/E stocks outperformed low P/E stocks more in past 10 years than they did in 10 years leading up to tech bust

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    Relative strength broken down by each sector (measured by ETFs)

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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    5. velj

    On this day in 1996: Apple cover story on Business Week “The Fall Of An American Icon.” up 35,000% since...

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Even though government bond yields are falling, U.S. consumers are paying higher rates on their auto loans than they were five years ago. Chart from DB's Torsten Slok:

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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Services are holding up much better than manufacturing globally. We track 14 service PMIs globally. In January, all 14 hit expansion territory, the first time since July 2019. Last month, just 71% of the service PMIs were in expansion. Note services tend to be non-tradeable.

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 23 sata

    Germany manufacturing new orders growth declined to -8.7% year over year, the weakest growth rate since 2009, bucking the trend of improving global industrial growth.

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