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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
Morning Note: -Payrolls Friday 165k est. -More ugly German data -Thiam pushed out of CSpic.twitter.com/6MXzYKevt6
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
It’s becoming hard to ignore the sense of panic in Hong Kong. This line for a local drugstore stretches around a large blockpic.twitter.com/yBxdrzaoVP
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
Watch Chinese real estate. Most are not showing properties until end of Feb. Question is the sustainability of this risk-aversion in Chinese populace & what that means for earnings of Chinese developers. This sector is most key (share of GDP & wealth effect) & also very leveragedpic.twitter.com/I3Atsz1IjJ
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
JPMORGAN slashes its China Q1 GDP forecast to just 1%, on
#coronavirus effects .. “more than 5%-pts lower than our pre-outbreak forecast. .. “Overall, we now see the pace of global GDP growth slipping to just 1.3% in 1Q20— half of our forecast prior to the outbreak ..”pic.twitter.com/N05VjUDZ0I
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
The
@USCBO and I have slightly different projections for#interestrates over the next ten years. I include a recession in that period, but even without it, it takes some really strong assumptions about term premiums to generate a 10yr rate of 3.1%. CBO (above) vs. me (below). https://twitter.com/USCBO/status/1225505973638516742 …pic.twitter.com/fxYBiZ3sA6
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
#global#semiconductor sales eased 1.7% to $36.1 billion in December, a level off 5.5% Y/Y and for the year as a whole, down 12.1% from 2018. This is a bellwether#industry and important end-use market for#chemistry.pic.twitter.com/CFP8KS3tVC
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
After a reprieve last week, continuing claims SA and NSA both saw higher year-over-year numbers this morning. This trend is not our friend.pic.twitter.com/twR4CT3L1f
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. markets are “utterly and completely unprepared” for an inflationary environment, hedge fund manager Ken Griffin said. “In the United States there is absolutely no preparedness for an inflationary environment,” Griffin said at the Economic Club of New York
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
The Global Citi Economic Surprise Index is at its best level in a couple of years, fwiw:pic.twitter.com/LlNyIa9w1P
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
The 5 year rolling average of US productivity is 1.19%. Assuming one half of one percent growth in the labor supply that implies the long term growth rate of around 1.7%.pic.twitter.com/gbvZhgNDiC
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
US initial jobless claims fell to 202K last week, the lowest level since April and pushing the 4-week average down to 212K.pic.twitter.com/kxRwk8hI4R
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je TweetHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
US
#productivity growth +1.4% (below expectations) as output rose 2.5% and hours rose 1.1%. Unit labor costs +1.4% as compensation +2.8%. Overall, productivity growth remains subdued at 1.8% y/y while unit labor costs +2.4% y/y (high since '18) squeezing#profit marginspic.twitter.com/sQn1k9STZn
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
The U.S. Citi Economic Surprise index is climbing toward the most positive since May 2018:pic.twitter.com/jSS7sVicmp
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
High P/E stocks outperformed low P/E stocks more in past 10 years than they did in 10 years leading up to tech bustpic.twitter.com/r1rVcoRvJD
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
Relative strength broken down by each sector (measured by ETFs)
@SoberLookpic.twitter.com/3GCjVtffPI
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
On this day in 1996: Apple cover story on Business Week “The Fall Of An American Icon.”
$AAPL up 35,000% since...pic.twitter.com/QW2uI5qTEU
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
Even though government bond yields are falling, U.S. consumers are paying higher rates on their auto loans than they were five years ago. Chart from DB's Torsten Slok:pic.twitter.com/eXLh8iIAgC
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
Services are holding up much better than manufacturing globally. We track 14 service PMIs globally. In January, all 14 hit expansion territory, the first time since July 2019. Last month, just 71% of the service PMIs were in expansion. Note services tend to be non-tradeable.pic.twitter.com/BcH3Jy2gge
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Rob Hager proslijedio/la je Tweet
Germany manufacturing new orders growth declined to -8.7% year over year, the weakest growth rate since 2009, bucking the trend of improving global industrial growth.pic.twitter.com/fZlgl4ceOm
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