Rob Carnell

@RobCarnell1

Eat curry, drink beer. Sleep in a bed. Views are my own

Vrijeme pridruživanja: veljača 2013.

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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 17 sati

    As Thailand cuts rates, we've added one more 25 basis point rate cut to our forecast this year, as the spread of the coronavirus depresses growth outlook, most likely via tourism.

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  2. 4. velj

    I've updated these charts and sorted out the axis labels. Data are all from WHO. There are more timely (and therefore higher) figures available, but for comparison purposes, this seems better. NB the levelling of non-China cases...worth watching. Saddle point or peak?

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  3. 31. sij

    Here are 3 charts I cobbled together looking at and the . At the same time after the initial outbreak, nCov has claimed as many lives as SARS and has infected about 3 times more people. nCov infections are still accelerating. Watch out non-Asia...

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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    29. sij

    Thailand’s activity data points to further dip in growth in 4Q19, while the hit to tourism from the coronavirus is clouding the outlook for 2020. The conditions are ripe for more BoT rate cuts and there could be one as early as next week.

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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Unpopular opinion: Prevent a recession at all cost & be stuck in a low growth, excessive debt regime forever. Recessions are part of the natural business cycle, they weed out the excess, wring out inefficiencies & zombie companies & set the foundation for new innovation & growth.

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  6. 24. sij

    Why I'm finding something positive to say about Wuhan flu, and why I don't think a market crash is around the corner.

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  7. 21. sij

    So far, the Wuhan flu story is being treated as if it were an interesting aside - I suspect this may become a top headline in the coming days and weeks

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  8. 18. sij
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  9. 1. sij

    So, I was having a go at “Conversation” with my 13 year old and asked him, “If you could only eat one type of cuisine for the rest of your life, what would it be?”. I was hoping for a reply like Italian or Indian to show his cosmopolitan upbringing. He replied “BirdsEye”.

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Some Asian economies are not only growing quickly, but their growth seems extremely stable. In contrast, many developed economies are not only growing slowly, but the growth is more volatile. investigates.

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    A big Johnson win, Brexit is now 'easier', the pound jumped +2% and this is what we think will happen next after the extraordinary UK

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  12. 12. pro 2019.

    UK PM Johnson "trumps" President Trump in the headlines today as he heads for a big majority, overshadowing news that President Trump has 'signed off' on a Trade Deal with China (this is not to say he has actually signed anything official)

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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    12. pro 2019.
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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Why think the 'phase one' of the trade deal is a bit like one of those lessons in mathematical economics, where "n" approaches zero, but never quite reaches it, stretching asymptotically to infinity.

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  15. 2. pro 2019.

    Return of the Tariffs! No not China, at least not yet, but Brazil, Argentina, and possibly France, Austria, Italy and Turkey. Markets are behaving in text-book fashion. Bond yields down, equities down, USD-Asia moving higher.

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  16. 1. pro 2019.

    From Indian GDP growth to Korean inflation, Asia's data is not painting a pretty picture. Chinese PMIs over the weekend buck that gloom, thanks to the boost from infrastructure

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  17. 26. stu 2019.

    It's good (and rare) to hear a central banker talking common sense when it comes to unconventional monetary policy - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Lowe mostly did that in a speech last night.

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  18. 25. stu 2019.

    New highs in stock markets: Animal spirits seem strong and optimistic, just don't look at the data too closely.

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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    11. stu 2019.

    Fantastic report by and the team . All you need to know for the and Brexit

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  20. 6. stu 2019.

    After yesterday's encouraging news on trade, now the disappointment - any phase 1 trade deal now looks unlikely to be signed until December. Is there more than just a venue issue here?

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