See my tweets from recent weeks on the #Russia-#Assad dynamic regarding potential conflict with #Turkey in #Syria:https://twitter.com/rita_katz/status/1225132879371538433 …
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See my tweets from recent weeks on the #Russia-#Assad dynamic regarding potential conflict with #Turkey in #Syria:https://twitter.com/rita_katz/status/1225132879371538433 …
Syrian regime airstrike, made on a Turkish post, was clearly deliberate. Casualties counts now rising to 29. Comes one day after US Defense Sec said US unlikely to re-engage in fighting along the borer, which SAA (and Russia) may have interpreted as leeway to further test Turkey.
Turkey now retaliating against Syrian regime, firing rockets onto SAA in southern Idlib, according to reports from the ground. Turkish government now declaring: "All ground and air elements of the Assad regime are now a target and enemy for the Republic of Turkey.”
As was seen in the last weeks, neither side seemed willing to accept the other's warning (nor did either side see much incentive to do so from outside governments). Was only a matter of time before we reached this level.
Update 2-28: Count of Turkish casualties from yesterday's SAA airstrike risen to 33. Turkish and Russian officials will meet next week in Ankara to discuss #Idlib. Russian military has also been in contact with American counterparts. Hopefully, diplomacy will be effective.
Meanwhile, however, things don't seem to be calming down. SAA is continuing its offense against Turkish forces, having now attacked a Turkish position in #Idlib countryside.
Talks between Russian & Turkish delegations today fell flat, with Turkey appealing heavily to Sochi Agreement, which established buffer zone in N Syria. Meanwhile, Erdogan & Trump have reportedly agreed to address #Idlib, though no specifics (if there will be any) provided yet.
At this point, with 1000s' lives at risk, US offer of "information sharing & equipment" to Turkey falls in same ballpark as "thoughts and prayers." There needs to be a more unified push-back against Russia-Iran-SAA coalition by US and its Western allies.https://twitter.com/humeyra_pamuk/status/1233487982319063042 …
Refugees arriving to Greece from Turkey after Turkey announces it opened its borders into Europe--a move by Erdogan to strong-arm Europe into engaging in the #Idlib crisis.pic.twitter.com/2QSkFZplMD
Turkey has not held back in targeting high-ranking SAA personnel and high-value locations to batter SAA's already-thin forces. This appears to be taking effect as the regime is now pulling forces from Aleppo to Idlib.https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1233489439403466759 …
Understated is that Turkey has developed strong influence among rebels in Syria, adding yet more power to its stance there. This could give Turkey more leverage in bringing the Assad-Russia-Iran coalition to the table toward a suitable ceasefire (and more quickly, hopefully).
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