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- autonomously design, code and distribute whole apps (but not the most complex ones) - beat any human on any computer task a typical white-collar worker can do in 10 minutes - write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books - generate coherent 20-min films
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The best humans will still be better (tho much slower) at: - writing novels - robustly pursuing a plan over multiple days - generating scientific breakthroughs, including novel theorems (tho NNs will have proved at least 1) - typical manual labor tasks (vs NNs controlling robots)
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FWIW my actual predictions are mostly more like 2 years, but others will apply different evaluation standards, so 2.75 seems more robust. Also, they're not based on any OpenAI-specific information. For my definition of situational awareness see
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Lots to disagree with here ofc. I'd be particularly interested in: A) people giving median dates they expect these to be achieved B) people generating other specific predictions about what NNs will and won't be able to do in a few years' time
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Re the planning one, since a lot of people are commenting on that:
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Replying to @MugaSofer and @anthrupad
Two clarifications here: - I think writing down plans doesn't get you very far, the best plans are often things like "try X, see what happens, iterate". - It's about beating any human (across many domains) not beating the best human in each domain.
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And another clarification on planning:
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Replying to @RichardMCNgo @MugaSofer and @anthrupad
By "many domains" I don't mean literally all of them, but a pretty wide range. E.g. averaged across all businesses that McKinsey has been hired to consult for, AI will make better business plans than any individual human could. See already: twitter.com/emollick/statu
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One terminology clarification: when I say "I predict" I mean I assign >50% credence, but not necessarily *much* more than 50%. That's inherently vague but so are my opinions, so I'm not sure there's much benefit from trying to be more concrete on probabilities and timelines.
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One more prediction: NNs will pass the current version of the ARC autonomous replication evals (see section 2.9 of the GPT-4 system card; page 55: arxiv.org/abs/2303.08774). But they won't be able to self-exfiltrate from secure servers, or avoid detection if cloud providers try.
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Another prediction: 5% of adult Americans will report having had multiple romantic/sexual interactions with a chat AI, and 1% having had a strong emotional attachment to one.
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We'll see clear examples of emergent cooperation: AIs given a complex task (e.g. write a 1000-line function) in a shared environment cooperate without any multi-agent training. Also: after a chat with I've revised my video generation prediction to 5 not 20 mins.
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But looks like I made the classic mistake of indexing only on what was already out, not on the stuff that was about to be released:
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Pushed #gen2 again & made a movie trailer. #aicinema is finally here! Every shot made from text prompts, except one iconic shot you all know, done with #gen1 Made possible by @runwayml @bazluhrmann your movies been a great inspiration! 😍🎞️🙏 Voices: @elevenlabsio #aianimation
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