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RichFelker's profile
Rich Felker
Rich Felker
Rich Felker
@RichFelker

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Rich Felker

@RichFelker

Yeah, I do @musllibc, FOSS & infosec stuff. But now is not the time for a mostly-/only-tech Twitter feed.

musl-libc.org
Joined March 2014

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Nov 2016
      Replying to @HerbieLewis

      .@HerbieLewis There is a bigger question here: can you model very very rare events based on very very few cases, aka what 538 does?

      6 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      .@HerbieLewis The whole debate people are having is about 538 probability distributions; little debate on what those actually are.

      5 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      I think the 538 "snake" of state outcomes is a great and informative. I'd personally chop off the top. Not as informative as people think.

      3 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Ben Lillie

      Here's some good discussion. I don't think many people understand what the top of the 538 page actually represents.https://twitter.com/BenLillie/status/795455631423602688 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Ben Lillie @BenLillie
      Replying to @zeynep
      Quanta took a crack at a similar question, ended up concluding the probabilities aren't defensible https://www.quantamagazine.org/20161026-election-forecasting-puzzle-solution/ …
      2 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Andrew Perrin

      Yep. Binary outcome=no way to judge the model. Poll avgs are plenty good info. No need to obsess over 538 topline.https://twitter.com/andrewjperrin/status/795457139229782016 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Andrew Perrin @AndrewJPerrin
      Replying to @zeynep @DinoStraciatela @HerbieLewis
      Important point, partic b/c outcome is binary. OTOH strong causal mechanism helps.
      2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
    6. Colin Wyers‏ @cwyers 6 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      So, there's other ways to validate overall model, right? EV projection, popular vote projection, 50 state outcomes/margins.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Nov 2016
      Replying to @cwyers

      .@cwyers I am not sure how we'd adjudicate what people are arguing over—does Trump have 20 or 30% chance? The snake is what we should check.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    8. Colin Wyers‏ @cwyers 6 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep

      . @zeynep My feeling is there's no credit for being right on accident. Maybe there's some ledger God keeps where Trump is really 30% now...

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Colin Wyers‏ @cwyers 6 Nov 2016
      Replying to @cwyers

      . @zeynep ...but if how you get there's to be wrong on intermediary steps (EV, state outcomes, popular vote margin) you weren't really right

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 Nov 2016
      Replying to @cwyers

      .@cwyers A Clinton blowout or Trump win would inform but all possible outcomes are in the 538 distribution. It can't be wrong—by definition.

      6 replies 3 retweets 15 likes
      Rich Felker‏ @RichFelker 6 Nov 2016
      Replying to @zeynep @cwyers

      I suspect where we'll find 538 is actually wrong is that the predicted winner wins more often than should happen by chance.

      7:25 PM - 6 Nov 2016
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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