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Margin of Safety Investor

@ReturnOnMargin

Barbell investing in undervalued public equities and early stage startups. Student of life by day, CIO by night. | Not investment advice. Opinions are my own.

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Vrijeme pridruživanja: prosinac 2019.

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    Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
    • Prijavi Tweet

    1/ I recently read @chriswmayer’s book “100 Baggers: Stocks that return 100-to-1 and how to find them”. Some notes and highlights in the following thread:

    06:43 - 25. sij 2020.
    • 70 proslijeđenih tweetova
    • 302 oznake „sviđa mi se”
    • Matthew Cochrane TraderNickCFA 🇨🇦 Dileep m Tan soon nam Tim Maloney مشعل Falah Almutairi 🍂 hold&hope Yeow Yong
    15 replies 70 proslijeđenih tweetova 302 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
      1. Novi razgovor
      2. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        2/ Chris got inspired by Thomas Phelps who wrote an equivalent book in 1972 called “100 to 1 in the Stock Market”. He became aware of it through a talk by Chuck Akre titled “An Investor’s Odyssey: The Search for Outstanding Investments”.

        1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 14 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      3. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        3/ Phelps had a 42 year career in the markets as a bureau chief for Wall Street Journal, editor of Barron’s, partner at a brokerage firm, head of research at a Forture 500 and partner at Scudder, Stevens & Clark (bought out by Deutsche Bank). He died in 1992.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 5 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      4. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        4/ Phelps had some simple messages that most value investors are aware of: Wall Street is built on activity and not results. Investors too bite on what’s moving and can’t sit on a stock that’s not going anywhere. This leads to many lost opportunities of mammoth returns.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 13 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      5. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        5/ Phelps says that Investors should focus on the business, not market prices. Look at EPS, ROE and the like. Ask yourself, if I didn’t know the share prices and was already an owner of this business, would I sell my shares or not?

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 17 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      6. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        6/ Phelps advises looking for new methods, new materials, and products that improve life, solve problems and allow us to do things better, faster, cheaper. These make good companies to buy and hold.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 20 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      7. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        7/ Phelps is quick to add he is not advocating blindly holding onto stocks. “My advice to buy right and hold on is intended to counter unproductive activity, not to recommend putting them away and forgetting them.”

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      8. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        8/ Phelps says that you should sell rarely, and only when it is clear you made an error. One can argue every sale is a confession of error, and the shorter the time you’ve held the stock, the greater the error in buying it.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      9. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        9/ Phelps’ book listed 365 100-baggers. The cutoff date was 1972. @chriswmayer decided to update his study. He studied all the 100-baggers between 1962-2014. It actually costed over $50,000 just to get the data. By a strange coincidence the study also returned 365 stocks.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 5 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      10. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        10/ The book starts by describing the so called “coffee can portfolio”: http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/the-coffee-can-portfolio.pdf … The idea of the coffee can portfolio is simple: you find the best stocks you can and let them sit for 10 years.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 11 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      11. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        11/ Buy and hold can be difficult. The coffee can approach offers a crutch to 100-baggerdom. It can help you “hold on”. It works because it keeps your worst instincts from hurting you, and is practically free to hold and manage.

        1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      12. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        12/ An extreme example of a coffee can portfolio is the Voya Corporate Leaders Trust Fund. It bought equal amounts of stock in 30 major US corporations in 1935 and hasn’t picked a new stock since. It has beaten the S&P 500 for 40 years.

        1 reply 3 proslijeđena tweeta 12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      13. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        13/ Contrast this with the average fund that has 160 stocks and turns them over every year. That’s not investing, that’s how Wall Street makes money. And they come with all kinds of fees vs the relatively low (but not too low) 0.52% of the Voya Corporate Leaders Trust Fund.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      14. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        14/ You don’t have to put all of your money in a coffee can portfolio. You just take a portion you know you won’t need for 10 years. Stick with established companies with long runaways of growth ahead and the ability to keep compounding capital at a high rate.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 8 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      15. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        15/ Another study of 100-baggers was published by Tony at TS Analysis: http://alphaideas.in/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/100-baggers.pdf … He looked at 19 stocks and drew four conclusions: A. The most powerful stock moves tended to be during extended periods of growing earnings accompanied by an expansion of P/E.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 9 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      16. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        16/ B. These periods of P/E expansion often seem to coincide with periods of accelerating earnings growth. C. Some of the most attractive opportunities occur in beaten-down, forgotten stocks, which perhaps after years of losses are returning to profitability.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      17. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        17/ D. During such periods of rapid share price appreciation, stock prices can reach lofty P/E ratios. This shouldn’t necessarily deter one from continuing to hold the stock. The combination of rising earnings and a higher multiple is what drives long term explosive returns.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 9 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      18. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        18/ A similar 100 baggers study was performed by Motilal Oswal for the Indian stock market: https://m.motilaloswal.com/downloads/19-wcs-2014-100x-12-dec-2014.pdf … Huge growth in sales, margins and valuations was the common denominator.

        1 reply 3 proslijeđena tweeta 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      19. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        19/ The analysis showed that 100 baggers have some common characteristics, referred to as SQGLP: * Size is small. * Quality is high for both business and management. * Growth in earnings is high. * Longevity in both Q and G. * Price is favorable for good returns.

        4 proslijeđena tweeta 19 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      20. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        20/ Patience is the key to capitalize on a 100-bagger move. Very few can even conceptualize an 100x return on their investment. Even an extreme 50% annual compounder needs 11 years to 100x. A 20% compounder needs 25 years.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      21. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        21/ Another study was done by Kevin Martelli for 10-baggers, the second part of this presentation: https://microcapclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/A-Perspective-on-Value-Investing.pdf … He found 3,795 stocks over the last 15 years. Most were unpredictable, but he also selected 100 that rational value investors could reasonable discover.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 11 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      22. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        22/ His conclusions are that there is no magic formula, you need a low entry price, you should focus on small companies (microcaps, below 300mil), there is ample time to buy good companies, and patience is critical.

        1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 8 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      23. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        23/ There is no amount of security analysis that is going to tell you a stock can be a 100-bagger. It takes vision and imagination and a forward-looking view into what a business can achieve and how big it can get. Investing is a reductionist art.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 8 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      24. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        24/ Think big. A 20% annual compounder needs 25 years for 100x. But if you sell at year 20 you’ll “only” get 40x (before taxes). The last 5 years will more than double your overall return. You must have patience.

        1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 8 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      25. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        25/ The average time for a stock to become a 100 bagger in the book was 26 years (also the median). The fastest was Franklin Resources at 4.2 years! Other well known names at under 10 years are Time Warner, Valeant, Dell, L Brands, QCOM, CSCO, Monster, Southwest, and more.

        1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 9 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      26. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        26/ Analyzing Monster Beverage, Chris arrives at 3 components of a detectable formula for 100-baggerdom. These are: rapid increase in sales, rising profits and rising ROE.

        1 reply 3 proslijeđena tweeta 9 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      27. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        27/ Don’t get stuck in “good” traditional value investing ratios. You ought to prefer to pay a healthy price for a fast growing, high-return business than a cheap price for a mediocre business. A 20% grower at a PE of 20 is better than a 10% grower at a PE of 10.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 13 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      28. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        28/ You need to screen for and invest in high ROE businesses. Many steady ROE companies have the potential for 100x. Aim for 15% or better in most years, earned from high profit margins and not leverage.

        1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      29. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        29/ Beware of stock buybacks that boost ROE. Without sales growth the ROE means nothing and you’re most likely looking at a value trap. IBM is a good example of that. Good ROE and “cheap” but stagnant revenues. It’s not going to go anywhere.

        1 reply 4 proslijeđena tweeta 12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      30. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        30/ Another important finding was that multi baggers have owner-operators. Skin in the game turns operators into long term capital allocators that don’t destroy value. @nntaleb’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/042528462X … analyzes the concept amazingly well regarding all aspects of life.

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 14 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      31. Margin of Safety Investor‏ @ReturnOnMargin 25. sij
        • Prijavi Tweet

        31/ The Virtus Wealth Masters Fund is an investment vehicle for those who want to buy companies with owner-operators. @virtushttps://www.virtus.com/products/horizon-wealth-masters#shareclass.I/period.quarterly …

        1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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