RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@RenMacLLC

RenMac serves professional and institutional money managers with high impact analytics and rigorous thought. We cater to empirical evidence, not platitudes.

Vrijeme pridruživanja: rujan 2015.

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  1. Coronavirus Thru Dr. Chris Mores’ Eyes: Harvard trained Immunologist specializing in Infectious Disease provides his expert insight on the Coronavirus 1)CDC and WHO are go-to sources 2)Transmissibility vs Mortality 3)Outbreak outside Wuhan key

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  2. Last week's weakness has taken the boil off the most recent Investors' Intelligence bulls. Now middle range and lowest since last Fall.

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  3. This closed at a firm, but uninspiring 78%.

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  4. TIME Magazine did not top tick Coronavirus, but may have top ticked Biden's chances of nominee.

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  5. Up-volume at 85% is best since 10/11/19 when the SPX as shaking off the shackles of the ~18-month range.

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  6. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index surged to 59.8 in February, the highest since January 2004. The sample period was from Jan. 23 to Jan. 30. So, this captures some of the headlines around the corona-virus outbreak. At any rate, US consumers' confidence is still strong.

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  7. Market News Intl Chicago Biz Barometer drops into the bottom historical decile...that must be bearish. WRONG....negative coefficient suggests it's contrarian with forward returns, sometimes early, but lower is generally better. -Know the data

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  8. Only "The Economist" featured CoronaVirus on its cover this week. Neither "Newsweek" nor "Time" found it distressing enough to feature on their covers.

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  9. The Global PMI improved to 50.4, the best since April. However, looking at this decomposition exercise, the pick-up has been mostly about the US and China, making the improvement somewhat tenuous. On the bright side, we saw less of a drag from Germany nd a big lift from India.

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  10. Maybe I just missed them, but energy and macro funds along with CTAs and distressed credit seemed to be in short supply at this year’s Context 2020 in Miami. 🤔

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  11. For fun: here is a chart of Boeing stock price year-over-year versus the Chicago PMI.

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  12. Recall that Boeing is a Chicago based company. This might be one reason why the Chicago PMI crumbled as other regional PMIs improved.

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  13. In other news, blue collar workers are seeing more rapid wage and salary growth. According to ECI, for goods producing workers, wage & salary growth up 3.4%, fastest since 2001. Service-providing workers see wage & salary growth slow to 2.9%, slowest since Q4 2017.

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  14. Low inflation should not be seen as a surprise. ECI compensation growth rose 2.7% in 2019. Productivity is up a little over 1% during this period. So, 1.6% inflation, as we saw in this morning's PCE, is right in the ballpark.

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  15. For one, the data are revised to March 2019, not all of 2019. But, the downward revision is already widely known to be coming (QCEW). That is, it's priced into the market & economics consensus. So, nope, this is not why anyone is taking another look at their H1 2020 outlook.

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  16. While industrial equipment spending has been weak, there has been no real let-up in software investment. Real software investment rose 10.5% in 2019 after 11.6% growth in 2018 and now totals 2% of US GDP, a record.

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  17. Private fixed investment in structures declined 7% in 2019, declining for three consecutive quarters and cutting GDP by 0.3ppt on average per quarter over this period. With architectural billings on the mend, we are skeptical this steep contraction will carry into 2020.

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  18. Worth noting: Excess reserves surged in late 1999 as the Fed created a cushion around potential Y2K diseuption, they withdrew in the days after and the NDX peaked roughly 6wks later.

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  20. Signs of improvement in global economy ahead of corona virus. Sweden economic tendency indicator improved to 97.1 in January, best since mid-2019. This mirrors other indicators across Europe. Sweden is a small, open economy long been seen as a barometer for global growth.

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