OK let's get this on record. What percentage chance would you assign to a lab leak? Because there are a lot of credible people I'm reading from and talking to that consider it reasonably likely (at least 50%).https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1397807872033976323 …
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Not impossible but less than 1% for a lab leak of a natural isolate. Logs below that for an engineered virus.
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Replying to @florian_krammer @NateSilver538
We need to assess possibility of lab leak not in isolation, based purely on scientific likelihood, but also in context of what we know: the admittedly circumstantial facts that emerge.This is no longer a purely scientific judgement but a security assessment based on entire mosaic
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Some of the ‘evolutionary theory’ being referred to by the virology community is - sorry to say - flawed. There is a lack of Bayesian analysis and probabilistic modelling in general. This results in a deeply flawed assessment of the risks and likelihood of events.
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The “Bayesian analysis” I’ve seen so far is “There’s a virology lab, and an anonymous story that two people got sick there.” Have you seen an actual Bayesian equation with labeled variables?
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