Here's my line on the #NM01 special tonight (district was Biden +23, Haaland +16 in '20). Melanie Stansbury (D) by...
>15: Dems should be very happy
10-15: about what we might expect
<10: sign of a Dem turnout problem post-Trump
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It's an open seat. Stansbury isn't very well known; neither is her GOP opponent. We cannot expect a Dem non-incumbent to match Biden's baseline.
And yes, I am playing the expectations and spin game!
I still call #NM01 "The Walter White District." I wish that Gomez had run!
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Think the early vote data points to D+23, honestly; is there a reason you expect D+10-D+15?
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The numbers look very good for Democrats then
Quote Tweet
New numbers released by @NMSecOfState at 5 p.m. show Dems continue to lead in total ballots cast in #NM01
Dems: 67,907
GOP: 38,640
DTS: 14,473
Lib: 656
Other: 506
Election Day vote:
Dems: 13,216
GOP: 10,278
DTS: 3,625
Lib: 189
Other: 146
#nmpol
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for those interest, betting markets have this very much in the "Dems should be very happy" camp based on partisan split of vote reported thus far.
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