New: our first (2,500+ word) look at the 2021 redistricting cycle, kicking off in just a few months, is now available to subscribers. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house
Conversation
Five big differences vs. 2011 redistricting cycle:
- Dems much better prepared and GOP less dominant
- New commissions in CO/MI/VA and to lesser extent NY/OH/UT
- New post-Shelby VRA implications
- Heightened public/court scrutiny
- Voters even more geographically pre-sorted
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Had Democrats not sued to overturn GOP-drawn maps in FL/NC/PA/VA the past few years, they wouldn't still be in the House majority today.
But Republicans could conceivably gain enough seats from 2021 redistricting *alone* to erase Dems' thin House majority.
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dems gain any ground in places like ny maryland, california to cut the ground
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I just hope the district I'm in shifts a few blocks south so I move back into Debbie Wasserman Schultz's district.
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Does HR1/S1 have the potential to implement universal nonpartisan redistricting committees before the 2022 district are drawn?
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PA redistricting will be a knife fight. The battle over at-large SCOPA seats is a preview. Then comes the main event: new maps for Assembly and Congress. With PA losing a House seat, expect the delegation to go from 9-9 to 11-6 or, at best, 10-7. Gov. Wolf can only do so much
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Things had better get resolved cleanly in the lower courts, because there will be no electoral justice in the tRump-McConnell SCOTUS.
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Puerto Rico and DC statehoods are enough to erase those gains for GOP in the house.
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had Dems not supported defunding the police they'd probably be controlling a lot more redistricting
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FWIW, one mistake Rs did in their 2011 redistricting was they centred their efforts to prioritise suburbs. I doubt they will be doing that again this time and instead centre them around rural, more 'Trumpy' districts.
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