And BTW, this record-shattering 42-seat House GOP exodus is one of the biggest reasons @CookPolitical continues to view Dems as substantial favorites for House control.
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Another GOP concern: $$$. In 20/42 *R* open seats, the leading D outraised the leading R between April & June, including 7/8 Clinton CDs & 13/34 Trump CDs.
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To NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers's credit, only one additional R has retired since Ryan did on 4/11:
#VA05 Rep. Tom Garrett, who is leaving to seek treatment for alcoholism & was replaced on the ballot by a distillery owner.Show this thread -
To be clear, 42 GOP open/vacant seats is a record since *at least* 1928, b/c my Vital Stats data only goes back to 1930 cycle. Extreme psephology nerds: when's the last year there were more??
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Trying again here: There hasn't been an offyear election during a GOP prez since the 2010 redistricting. Should that affect the probabilities?
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not really, because we're still comparing apples to apples (districts the incumbent president lost, regardless of who drew them)
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Isn't it kind of hard to come up with a count of "predictions" when the site is reporting which seats are competitive? How do you count a tossup seat in this case?
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maps,
data,
ski slopes &
trad tunes. Has seen enough.