Dave WassermanCuenta verificada

@Redistrict

U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan Report w/ . Nerd for 🗺️ maps, 📈 data, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.

Washington, DC
cookpolitical.com/about/staff/da…
Se unió en septiembre de 2009
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  1. Tweet fijado
    31 jul.

    If you aren't already a subscriber, it's a great time to sign up for :

    Thanks to all of those who’ve offered encouragement as I take the helm of . I’ve been blessed w/ a great mentor & an awesome team: . Here’s what’s next:
    12 respuestas 23 retweets 255 Me gusta
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  2. hace 1 hora

    I've seen enough: wins my decennial Iowa redistricting challenge and a year's subscription to the Report w/ .

    En respuesta a @Redistrict
    NE district: 797,590 SE district: 797,595 W district: 797,594 Central district: 797,590 Total deviation: 5 people
    12 respuestas 22 retweets 564 Me gusta
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  3. hace 5 horas

    Tbh, the only way a Dem gerrymander of Upstate NY would work would be for AOC, Bowman and Jones to absorb heavily GOP parts of Westchester, Rockland, Orange, Putnam and Dutchess counties (while still keeping overwhelmingly safe Dem seats). We’ll see.

    53 respuestas 77 retweets 812 Me gusta
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  4. hace 5 horas

    Because NY is losing a seat. After an Upstate district is axed, ~0.3 of a Downstate seat will need to move north to absorb Upstate turf.

    En respuesta a @Redistrict
    if NYC proper added ~600k people and the rest of the state added ~200k why do they need to push north?
    4 respuestas 11 retweets 173 Me gusta
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  5. hace 6 horas

    A lot of newer members who have never gone through redistricting are in for a rude awakening (in this case, if no NYC Dems retire, seats like will need to push north for population).

    52 respuestas 135 retweets 1.218 Me gusta
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  6. retwitteó
    hace 10 horas

    Excellent look at possible changes to ME CD’s (and great pic of ⁦⁩ ). Bottom line: even moving 23K 1st CD residents into the 2nd CD isn’t going to make ME02 more Dem. Status quo most likely.

    2 respuestas 18 retweets 85 Me gusta
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  7. 17 ago.

    The five districts with biggest *increases* in white share of the population, 2010-2020: 1. Gomez (D), 9% to 13% 2. Velazquez (D), 28% to 31% 3. Evans (D), 29% to 32% 4. Espaillat (D), 12% to 15% 5. Jeffries (D), 22% to 24%

    13 respuestas 66 retweets 364 Me gusta
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  8. 17 ago.

    The five districts with biggest declines in white share of the population, 2010-2020: 1. Taylor (R), 62% to 50% 2. Bourdeaux (D), 50% to 38% 3. Wasserman Schultz (D), 49% to 37% 4. Ruppersberger (D), 55% to 43% 5. Soto (D), 49% to 37%

    19 respuestas 205 retweets 1.222 Me gusta
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  9. 16 ago.

    The only genuinely competitive seat on this map would be Rep. John Katko (R)'s , who has already proven he can win in a really blue seat. The thinking here is that he might lose a primary on his right, in which case the new seat would be winnable for a Dem in a general.

    24 respuestas 70 retweets 785 Me gusta
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  10. 16 ago.

    A close-up view of NYC in the above scenario: Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R)'s would take on Red Hook, Sunset Park & parts of Park Slope and flip from Trump +11 to Biden +10. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)'s would absorb some GOP parts of Westchester.

    34 respuestas 116 retweets 866 Me gusta
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  11. 16 ago.

    In the scenario above, only three Rs would be spared: Reps. Andrew Garbarino , Elise Stefanik and Chris Jacobs . Every Dem incumbent would get a double digit Biden seat (including Maloney & Delgado ).

    56 respuestas 109 retweets 1.136 Me gusta
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  12. 16 ago.

    NEW YORK: strategists I've spoken w/ tell me strong census numbers in NYC could help Dems purge as many as *five* of the eight GOP seats in the state. In the hypothetical below, Dems would gerrymander the current 19D-8R map (left) into as brutal as a 23D-3R rout (right).

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  13. 16 ago.

    We all owe a debt of gratitude to election workers who tirelessly & successfully pulled off an election w/ record-shattering turnout amid unprecedented challenges.

    New election data from the released today finds that 71,051,818 mail ballots were returned by (domestic and military/overseas) voters in the 2020 election. Of these, election officials rejected 579,886 ballots, or a rejection rate of 0.8%
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    10 respuestas 158 retweets 1.306 Me gusta
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  14. 16 ago.

    However, there are two reasons GA Rs might *not* pursue a map this aggressive: 1) the certainty of a VRA lawsuit 2) the risk it'd backfire in the ATL burbs in a few years I still view a safer 9R-5D map (below) that merges McBath & Bourdeaux as the likelier scenario.

    15 respuestas 34 retweets 267 Me gusta
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  15. 16 ago.

    GEORGIA: weak census numbers in southwest GA have Dems worried Rs could attempt a 10R-4D gerrymander that threatens Reps. Sanford Bishop (D) , Lucy McBath (D) & Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) . In below hypothetical, 10/14 districts would've voted Trump by 14%+ in '20.

    18 respuestas 94 retweets 405 Me gusta
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  16. retwitteó
    13 ago.

    One thing worth keeping in mind amid all the political analysis of the 2020 census: the 2020 election. Despite all the favorable demographic trends, Democrats aren't really any stronger than they were at the beginning of the decade

    31 respuestas 98 retweets 468 Me gusta
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  17. 15 ago.

    Pretty amazing stat, per Census: just 12 of the 53 current members of the Congressional Black Caucus represent districts that are 50%+ Black. The median CBC member now represents a district that's just 38.1% Black.

    57 respuestas 220 retweets 1.655 Me gusta
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  18. 14 ago.

    ILLINOIS: weak census numbers Downstate could help Dems gerrymander even more aggressively. In this 14D-3R example, stretches from Macomb (WIU) to DeKalb (NIU) and goes from Trump +2 to Biden +7.

    74 respuestas 182 retweets 1.256 Me gusta
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  19. 14 ago.

    On the other hand, Iowa Republicans would prefer something more similar to the current map, with four Trump districts and zero Biden districts (this hypothetical below has a much larger population variance of 5,478).

    12 respuestas 17 retweets 138 Me gusta
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  20. 14 ago.

    This hypothetical Iowa map, w/ two comfortable Biden districts ( and ) and a population variance of just 531 people, would be Dems' dream come true. But IA's GOP legislature has veto power, so I expect to see this map enacted when hogs fly.

    23 respuestas 51 retweets 648 Me gusta
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  21. 14 ago.

    Tbh, WV redistricting doesn't look that difficult to accomplish. Both of these districts would be just 1,057 people off the target population - less than half the 2010 deviation.

    20 respuestas 28 retweets 496 Me gusta
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