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Dave Wasserman proslijedio/la je Tweet
So basically, right as Bernie is going to pass Buttigieg, they are going to (correctly) revamp the delegates to put him back in 2nd place? Milwaukee is going to burn to the ground this summer.
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Who would have a better chance of beating Trump in Arizona this November?
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Who would have a better chance of beating Trump in Wisconsin this November?
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Will the DNC still be focused on a recanvass of an IA caucus (essentially a delegate tie) when the race is hurtling towards a contested convention where virtually no “normal” people/media are familiar with the rules?
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In retrospect, it was format: Obama simply crushed caucuses b/c he had more passion in the left. It would be a mistake to read too much into IA b/c there are barely any other caucuses in 2020.https://twitter.com/tradewarveteran/status/1225489722811854848 …
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If Biden comes back and scores a decisive win in SC, I’ll be curious to see if media types credit some heartstrings-pulling moment on the trail (a la Clinton tearing up in ‘08) when all it really was was...demographics.
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I don’t see how a party that generally believes the person who wins the most votes should win the WH will continue to stand for a format where the person with the most supporters isn’t necessarily the “winner.”
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Translation: we may not know who “won” the IA caucuses until after Super Tuesday...and we may never have confidence in the result at all.https://twitter.com/tomperez/status/1225468833458245632 …
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Dave Wasserman proslijedio/la je Tweet
There are more than 100 precincts in Iowa with some kind of irregularity or inconsistency in the returns across one of the various vote counts, according to our analysis, easily covering the narrow margin in the racehttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/upshot/iowa-caucuses-errors-results.html …
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Iowa should be proud of having one of the fairest, least politicized approaches to redistricting in the country. But the IA Dem Party’s approach to calculating a caucus winner is one of the most unnecessarily byzantine, arbitrary, unequal and error-prone things I’ve ever seen.
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Dave Wasserman proslijedio/la je Tweet
In the 2018 CA49 primary, Jacobs' grandfather, billionaire Irwin Jacobs, contributed $2.5 million to the Women Vote! PAC, which subsequently spent $2.3 million in the primary on media buys supporting Jacobs.https://twitter.com/SaraJacobsCA/status/1219667449961840641 …
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The only indisputable, non-incumbent winner of an Iowa caucus held in the past decade (either party): Ted Cruz
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My apologies for miscalculating/underestimating the impact satellites could have on the SDE count. Try hard on here to make sense of election returns quickly, but this IA count has posed some...unique challenges, to say the least.
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Just when you thought Iowa math couldn't get more convoluted...https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1225291123175907330 …
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Dave Wasserman proslijedio/la je Tweet
what's happening: Sanders's campaign clearly organized satellites. (Some were on campuses; some in mosques; one for Spanish speakers; etc.) Big turnout there for only his team. Few other campaigns had presence there: Buttigieg seems totally absent. Paying major, major dividends.https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1225285874415493120 …
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This is a plot twist, for sure.https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1225285181478707202 …
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In Howard Co., IA, the only county in America that voted for both Obama '12 & Trump '16 by more than 20%, Dem caucus turnout was down by 57% (!) vs. 2008, from 631 to 270. Not a great sign of Dem enthusiasm there.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-one-county-in-america-that-voted-in-a-landslide-for-both-trump-and-obama/ …
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To put this in a better context: Monday's turnout of 255 Democrats in Clarke Co. was down *55%* from the 568 who showed up in 2008 (statewide, it was only down about 29%). In 2012, Obama carried Clarke Co. 50%-48%. In 2016, Trump carried it 61%-33%.
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Rural Dem atrophy: in 2012, Obama carried Clarke County, IA 50%-48% over Romney. In 2020, Trump received more than twice as many caucus votes as each of the Dems running even though he didn't face real opposition.
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Warren only leading in Johnson Co. (Iowa City) and losing all 98 other counties perfectly illustrates just how dependent she is on college+ white liberals. That’s a huge problem for her viability moving forward.pic.twitter.com/Zf7m07sT0n
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