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Michael Levitt
@MLevitt_NP2013
Answering your tweet with politeness I am unable relinquish, please be so kind as to give a single number for the excess death in Israel from 1-Jan-2020 to 31-Dec-2020 (full year). Please give actual number of excess deaths as well as its percentage of normal expected deaths.
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JM Pienaar
@PienaarJm
Replying to @HRenkel @lpachter and 3 others
Unfortunately Michael's attempt to disrupt actuarial science and demography failed. Don't trust his baselines!
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JM Pienaar
@PienaarJm
Replying to
@MLevitt_NP2013
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JM Pienaar
@PienaarJm
Backtesting is a great way to evaluate accuracy of different baselines. Here I compare the historic accuracy of 4 methods. The data allows us to test it for Israel on the 12 years prior to 2020 At the bottom I also present the baseline and excess deaths for 2020 for each method.
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Ray J Wallin 😁
@Ray_J__
Replying to
@PienaarJm
and
@MLevitt_NP2013
I've posted this before, but yearly averages are thrown off by winter flu etc outbreaks. Year-to-year variations become more evident when summer-only data is used for forecasting. And then, there is the chaotic behavior of fish in a pond...
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CDC over-estimates USA excess deaths by 40,000 or one-third of 2020...
40,000 deaths equates to one-third of the non-COVID excess deaths which has significant real-world implications when considering possible secondary COVID eff...
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