Raoul PalOvjeren akaunt

@RaoulGMI

Founder/CEO - Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group, Business Cycle Economist, Investment Strategist, Economic Historian, Traveller and Rum Drinker..

Little Cayman, Cayman Islands
Vrijeme pridruživanja: travanj 2014.
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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    20. svi 2019.

    To push the business cycle from merely soft to full recessionary usually takes one event beyond just rate increases. The shattering of global supply chains will likely prove to be the trigger and the corporate credit market will be the ugly thing this downcycle is remembered for.

    99 replies 271 proslijeđeni tweet 1.231 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 4 sata

    Since 1982 (457M), the 10Y-3M YC has only been inverted a total of 23M, i.e. 5% of the time. Over the past 3Y, the outperformance of equities vs. bonds has been 8.9% p.a. If history repeats itself, once inverted: bonds>equities +10-20% p.a. over next 3Y. Different this time?

    8 replies 27 proslijeđenih tweetova 75 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  3. 3. velj

    Brexit looks to a buy the rumour, sell the fact for GBP. Let's see...

    12 replies 12 proslijeđenih tweetova 105 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    An inverted yield curve is everywhere and always a sign that monetary policy is too tight. Conclusion? Fed will have to cut more

    What's different about this yield inversion from 2019: - not driven by manufacturing recession or tariff worries - doesn't follow Fed easing signals that compress term premia What's the same as yield curve inversion in 2019: - it's still a completely bogus recession signal...
    12 replies 33 proslijeđena tweeta 168 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  5. 2. velj

    Thank you Fintwit for the trust you show in me. I suggested you might want to follow and 10,000 of you do so in 12 hours! You guys/girls are amazing. I take integrity of what I suggest to other very seriously.

    10 proslijeđenih tweetova 358 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  6. 2. velj

    This completely misses the fact that rate of change matter above all things, not absolutes. Sigh.

    Bitcoin’s “halvening” won’t boost its price
    28 replies 21 proslijeđeni tweet 263 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  7. 2. velj

    You should follow Julien. He is literally one of the best macro strategists/PM’s I know. His work on the business cycle is exceptional. Undiscovered by many, he is a go to guy for me.

    Whoops! US imports collapse -8.7%.
    86 proslijeđenih tweetova 527 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  8. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    If you have not seen this segment I highly recommend doing so >> THE PERILS OF PASSIVE INDEXATION

    7 replies 11 proslijeđenih tweetova 79 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    Relative to the dominant fundamental factor theory laid out so well by , evidence of collapse of emerging mkt currencies seen in Brazilian Real. on verge of upside acceleration.

    20 replies 60 proslijeđenih tweetova 291 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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  10. 31. sij

    If I could only own one asset for the next 10 years, it would be bitcoin It encapsulates all of my larger macro views and feels like the point on the far horizon we are headed to, in some shape or form. Yes, like gold too and many other things but BTC risk/reward beats all.

    296 replies 838 proslijeđenih tweetova 3.436 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    Welp, looks like I'm subscribing to because I don't want to miss this interview!

    Odgovor korisnicima @GaskarthWayBlog @wolfejosh i sljedećem broju korisnika: 2
    It came out today!
    15 replies 6 proslijeđenih tweetova 66 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  12. 31. sij

    This.

    Odgovor korisniku/ci @RaoulGMI
    RE: Corona virus is an enormous demand shock. YES! Correct! I live in Shanghai, China. Everything is shut down, people are not leaving their homes. The whole country! This is not analogous to SARs 2003. China is far bigger and the global economy is more connected.
    16 replies 58 proslijeđenih tweetova 257 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    US 30yr treasury 5bps from its lowest close in history.

    12 replies 54 proslijeđena tweeta 136 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    25. sij

    Coming soon— (behind scenes + we covered a ton from...) -vc -tesla -macro -valuations -Facebook -simulations -skill vs. luck -LP allocations -X-men mutants -Mike Bloomberg -fitness landscapes -public + private markets -brain-machine interfaces...

    10 replies 15 proslijeđenih tweetova 254 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  15. 31. sij

    unroll

    17 replies 2 proslijeđena tweeta 91 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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  16. 31. sij

    The bond market trend is set. The reaction of central banks is understood. The commodity markets rightly got the signal fast too. The knock-on effects are now spreading slowly into the currency markets. That is where I think where the next phase lies... Good luck.

    30 replies 20 proslijeđenih tweetova 313 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  17. 31. sij

    The JPM EM currency index is going to break down...

    21 proslijeđeni tweet 152 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  18. 31. sij

    This is a major concern, if it plays out. Many EM currencies also are exhibiting signs that the knock on effects on demand and capital flows might create some big issues, that catches people unaware. The South African Rand and Turkish Lira look next on the chopping block.

    16 proslijeđenih tweetova 116 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  19. 31. sij

    But what could be just an Asian regional weakness takes on more important signal effects when the Brazilian Real is about the break a gigantic cup and handle. You see, Brazil loses on the US/China trade deal and loses again as Chinese demand collapses for commodities...

    17 proslijeđenih tweetova 147 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  20. 31. sij

    The Chinese RMB looks like it is going to break too, once trading properly recommences...

    1 reply 9 proslijeđenih tweetova 119 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  21. 31. sij

    The Aussie, is already in full bear market mode, having broken the H&S of some magnitude and is now hitting new lows...

    7 replies 10 proslijeđenih tweetova 130 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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