Raoul PalOvjeren akaunt

@RaoulGMI

Founder/CEO - Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group, Business Cycle Economist, Investment Strategist, Economic Historian, Traveller and Rum Drinker..

Little Cayman, Cayman Islands
Vrijeme pridruživanja: travanj 2014.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    20. svi 2019.

    To push the business cycle from merely soft to full recessionary usually takes one event beyond just rate increases. The shattering of global supply chains will likely prove to be the trigger and the corporate credit market will be the ugly thing this downcycle is remembered for.

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Since 1982 (457M), the 10Y-3M YC has only been inverted a total of 23M, i.e. 5% of the time. Over the past 3Y, the outperformance of equities vs. bonds has been 8.9% p.a. If history repeats itself, once inverted: bonds>equities +10-20% p.a. over next 3Y. Different this time?

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  3. 3. velj

    Brexit looks to a buy the rumour, sell the fact for GBP. Let's see...

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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    An inverted yield curve is everywhere and always a sign that monetary policy is too tight. Conclusion? Fed will have to cut more

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  5. 2. velj

    Thank you Fintwit for the trust you show in me. I suggested you might want to follow and 10,000 of you do so in 12 hours! You guys/girls are amazing. I take integrity of what I suggest to other very seriously.

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  6. 2. velj

    This completely misses the fact that rate of change matter above all things, not absolutes. Sigh.

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  7. 2. velj

    You should follow Julien. He is literally one of the best macro strategists/PM’s I know. His work on the business cycle is exceptional. Undiscovered by many, he is a go to guy for me.

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  8. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj
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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Relative to the dominant fundamental factor theory laid out so well by , evidence of collapse of emerging mkt currencies seen in Brazilian Real. on verge of upside acceleration.

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  10. 31. sij

    If I could only own one asset for the next 10 years, it would be bitcoin It encapsulates all of my larger macro views and feels like the point on the far horizon we are headed to, in some shape or form. Yes, like gold too and many other things but BTC risk/reward beats all.

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Welp, looks like I'm subscribing to because I don't want to miss this interview!

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  12. 31. sij
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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    US 30yr treasury 5bps from its lowest close in history.

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    25. sij

    Coming soon— (behind scenes + we covered a ton from...) -vc -tesla -macro -valuations -Facebook -simulations -skill vs. luck -LP allocations -X-men mutants -Mike Bloomberg -fitness landscapes -public + private markets -brain-machine interfaces...

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  15. 31. sij
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  16. 31. sij

    The bond market trend is set. The reaction of central banks is understood. The commodity markets rightly got the signal fast too. The knock-on effects are now spreading slowly into the currency markets. That is where I think where the next phase lies... Good luck.

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  17. 31. sij

    The JPM EM currency index is going to break down...

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  18. 31. sij

    This is a major concern, if it plays out. Many EM currencies also are exhibiting signs that the knock on effects on demand and capital flows might create some big issues, that catches people unaware. The South African Rand and Turkish Lira look next on the chopping block.

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  19. 31. sij

    But what could be just an Asian regional weakness takes on more important signal effects when the Brazilian Real is about the break a gigantic cup and handle. You see, Brazil loses on the US/China trade deal and loses again as Chinese demand collapses for commodities...

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  20. 31. sij

    The Chinese RMB looks like it is going to break too, once trading properly recommences...

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  21. 31. sij

    The Aussie, is already in full bear market mode, having broken the H&S of some magnitude and is now hitting new lows...

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