I'm presenting the case for crypto to 3,000 institutional clients and staff of a global investment bank this afternoon. Trying to do my part...and grateful for the opportunity.
Wish me luck!
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
Founder/CEO - globalmacroinvestor.com, realvision.com
Trying to figure things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 and the Exponential Age
Not a guru.
Raoul Pal’s posts
Not on holiday yet so I'll allow myself one more thread...
The markets are crazy! NFT are just jpegs! Dog coins! Cat coins! Tesla ! GameStop!
Everyone is going to get burned! Don't they realize about discounted cash flows?!!! These people are ruining everything! Green energy?!
The biggest impediment to BTC adoption are bitcoin maximalists. Few understand this.
Be more open. Don't try to ram your points home. Support people and don't be tribal and never be abusive and insulting if someone doesn't share your BTC only views. It's a big world out there.
Something to get your head around:
Head Line:
A major asset class crashed 42% in 14 days, wiping out $1.02trn in value in an orgy of liquidation of people up to 100 x levered, with very low regulation. Many tokens fell up to 70%, including unregulated lending and borrowing biz.
I'm about to present The World's Best Trade (aka Bitcoin) to 150 European hedge funds and asset managers. Wish me luck. #wallofmoney
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This is what I first saw in crypto back in 2012. A new, anti-fragile financial system that doesn't break in times of stress, where ownership of assets is clear and losses are not mutualised to tax payers.
This was a big two weeks for crypto and for the future financial system.
It is so sad to see Twitter dissolve into angry people - value or commodity investors, BTC maxi's and other non-pragmatists - all screaming at anyone with different views. This is just investments, not a philosophical justice war. We all have different views and it's ok! Be nice.
Ok, last bomb - I have a sell order in tomorrow to sell all my gold and to scale in to buy BTC and ETH (80/20). I dont own anything else (except some bond calls and some $'s). 98% of my liquid net worth. See, you can't categorize me except #irresponsiblylong Good night all.
While we are all enjoying the volatility (actually I'm pretty impressed how people are taking it as par for the course and aren't overly freaked out!), here is what we are actually investing in - the fastest rate of adoption of any technology in all history. Volatility is noise.
If you don’t see by now that the tokenization of everything is the biggest thing we have ever seen and will ever see, I cant help you as much. It dwarfs all other opportunities for risk reward over time. Web 3.0 is something few yet understand but will change business forever. 1/
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Beneath the head line:
Crypto had a major, major VAR-shock test and NOTHING happened.
Leverage liquidation was offset by overcollateralisation. No one was left holding the baby.
No firm went under.
The Fed didn't need to step in.
Defi didn't break and carried on near normal
Remember that as the market cap of BTC rises, it forces more institutions into it. The more institutions that adopt it, the more the others have to and the harder it is for regulators to stop it.
A perfect reflexive loop with the little guy front running it all.
Bravo everyone!
I must admit that investing in crypto is not easy. Its not about price volatility, which is expected; its on one hand the people attack who you for not worshipping their favourite project, but also mean-revertionists doubting you, and sceptics hating you. Exhausting but amusing.
Job done. I think I did ok ;-) (I wasn't going to let you all down).
Time for a glass of wine...
Why no laser eyes? I love the solidarity but I think any celebration or hubris is dangerous. Heads down and focus on the really big picture and not a $100k milestone. Filter out all noise and laser concentrate on what matters - adoption, off exchange, new investment vehicles etc
As I said in my recent Real Vision Daily briefing, some people are saying what the next big macro play? when shall we go long/short of bonds? the $? what's next for oil? Everyone is missing the point.
Crypto is THE biggest macro trade of all time. Bar none.
Crypto IS macro.
I used to be part of the "world is going to shit and is just just a matter of time until..." until I realized it was just an alluring meme.
The world is always going to shit and it is always getting better too. Waiting for the world to end is not a profitable strategy. 1/
People have asked for books that influenced me on my macro thinking (not investing books mainly)
Guns, Germs and Steel
Sapiens
Homo Deus
The 4th Turning
The Great Rupture
The Crisis of Global Capitalism
Life Span
The Second Machine Age
The Price of Tomorrow
Lords of Finance
Bloody hell, I must be doing at least something right or adding a small amount of value...I seem to have hit 300,000 twitter followers. Obviously, 200,000 are bots, but still...
Thank you everyone for making this my home. Its where I love to hang out, throw out ideas & meet ppl
Danger! : Im going to add a basket of 10 alts to my BTC and ETH bets, using this dip. Shill me your coin but with a quality paragraph WHY I should look at it. My knowledge base is low, so treat me like the idiot I am (nicely)
Maxi aggressive "shitcoin" posts = insta bloc
Go.
So, as its Saturday night, I want to ask BTC twitter a question: You are generally libertainarians in philosophy right? And I am the Founder of a media platform, that encourage free speech, but if I book someone who is not a Bitcoiner, you are in outrage. Huh? WTF people.
For the Bitcoin Maxi’s: when ETH launched it was at 0.0007BTC. 6 years later, it is at 0.07. That is 100x vs BTC over the period you called it a shit coin.
The whole Pfeffer argument of utility value goes to zero has been proven wrong due to network effects
Facts matter. 1/
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Its not so complicated. You buy, you HODL, you add on dips and you dont use leverage.
Bitcoin is eating the world...
It has become a supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it. This narrative is only going to grow over the next 18 months.
You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin...and gold investors will flip to BTC
The Dollar Wrecking Ball:
I hear the narratives that the Fed is printing money...Brrr... and that is going to cause a dollar collapse. I worry that this narrative is very wrong. My strongly held view is that the dollar is the pinnacle of all the macro issues we face. 1/
I can not express how bullish I am on bitcoin. We are at risk of losing the entire system right now. I know they will find a way to save it but all trust is lost.
Gold guys/girls - you’ll be fine too. It’s just that $BTC has bigger upside, by far but is riskier than gold
So many chippy comments that I only own about 1 BTC! I am massively underweight BTC because I think its price appreciates less over time than ETH and some others. It is not a comment about me being negative BTC. Also, no, I’ve not sold any of my crypto bags to newbie bag holders
Bitcoin IS correlated with risk in the short term, of course it does, it's an asset and they all do! It is subject to short-term liquidity and behaviour, but its long-term trend is EXPONENTIAL, unlike most other risk assets. I don't know why people struggle with this...#NOISE.
ETH is up 126% YTD. Its Feb 3rd, FFS! I still expect it to hit $20k by around the turn of the year.
The entire DA space is going to consume the performance of everything else, with BTC as the flag carrier as The Big Asset. It is up 30% YTD hugely beating every other major asset
While everyone is speculating on Twitter’s blue tick, Elon has taken private one of the largest data sources on earth to train AI on human interactions and thoughts. And you thought Google capture was clever/invasive.
In AI, he who has the largest proprietary data sets wins.
I, for one, would like to thank for everything he has done for us all. He, almost above all, gave us the anchor and the framework around to which take risk and understand the power of BTC, for which all of us owe him a HUGE debt of gratitude. Bravo my friend!
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BREAKING ... I quit my job (PlanA) and start focusing on #bitcoin (PlanB) full time as of March 1st! 
I think we can firmly take “they’ll ban it!” FUD off the table.
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HUGE: U.S. Banking regulators looking into how banks can custody #Bitcoin, use it for collateral and balance sheet holdings.
- FDIC CHAIRMANTo be fair, my flippant comments about the BTC conference being a bit cringe was a reflection of the media coverage of the more extreme aspects but the truth is the speakers and many of the attendees are some of the smartest, most interesting forward thinkers Ive ever known.
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There were no daisy chains of collateral losses.
There was no collateral pressure.
Stablecoins remained stable.
A few exchanges went down for an hour or two. No exchange big losses occurred, no need to mutualise losses either.
No protocol failed.
No firms needed rapid funding.
the way to get Twitter to work is to create a token system. People who add value to the network get tokens like Reddit and community this decides accreditation. The token economy is probably worth 10x the equity value as it creates a tangible asset of community/brand.
The Dollar Standard:
The US Economy fell from 40% of World GDP in 1960 to just 25% today.
However, 79.5% of all world trade is conducted in US dollars.
84% of all non-domestic debt globally is US Dollar debt.
Around $100trn of global debts are denominated in US Dollars.
Every cynic is dunking on Cathie Wood and Ark. I happen to think she has nailed every major theme that will matter for the next 10 years. I re-thought my entire macro framework this month in GMI for first time in 20 years. I’m a buyer of Ark in weakness....and many other things.
This is my view.. The ETF is the next rocket fuel for this market. The Wall of Money keeps coming but it takes time for everyone to get internal approvals. I have so many conversations helping hedge funds, Family Offices and Asset Managers each week. All happening and more...
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This #bitcoin ranging consolidation period is the "boring" prelude to the BTC ETF approval pump mania phase.
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The next 10 years is going to have the fastest, great technology change in all human history.
The Exponential Age.
We will all feel left behind, but we have to trust in this younger generation of people under 40 to lead the way and show us new ways. We need to be led.
If you care about ETH, you might want to watch this clip from today. I probably gave away too much of my thinking… oh well. Enjoy the weekend all!
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. @RaoulGMI discusses the latest edition of Global Macro Investors & a section called "The Greatest Trade." What is it?
Watch 
twitter.com/RealVision/sta
twitter.com/RealVision/sta
This is huge news. This is the largest asset management firm on earth. 2021 is setting up to be a year of severe supply shortages vs. demand in Bitcoin, and upside price dislocations. #Bitcoin
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Wow. BlackRock CIO of Fixed Income Rick Rieder talking about Bitcoin replacing gold on CNBC this morning.
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Had so much fun on @RealVision I think the interview is coming out next week. Thanks guys!
Crypto Bomb:
Ok, I'm leaking some GMI early... (not published yet - tomorrow a.m.)
I will eventually publish in Real Vision too (this article only). I push back strongly the Pfeffer view and the "shitcoin" view.
It's all Metcalfe's Law, baby... and ETH = BTC, like it or not.
At this point and for a while, ETH leads, Alts season follows and bitcoin still explodes higher. Everyone wins. Enjoy and take on board the FUD with a open mind but remember, in an exponential bull market everyone wants to spook you out of your trade. It’s really not easy.
Feels like BTC is getting ready to climb the wall of FUD fear. Positive seasonality and a nice wedge give it a good chance to hit $50k by March. Let's see... I remain, as ever, #irresponsiblylong.
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This is the old financial market trick - you now have to add multiple new intermediaries who all make profits - the ETF provider, clearing house, futures broker, administrator, auditor, law firm, CME and hedge fund arbs.
Wall street gets richer. Retail investors lose. Again.