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Most probably the following may happen prior to the Istanbul conference on Afghan peace talk; although Istanbul was scheduled for 5th April, it will likely be delayed because of final arrangements from all sides on the following are not solidified yet: 1/9
US will ask Taliban & Pakistan to accept the delay of troops withdrawal for six months, and the extension of six months is likely to happen. But the extension will be just for settlement/implementation of the Istanbul Conference’s decisions, not for US simply delaying 2/9
withdrawal as US can withdraw anytime. Though Zal and State D seem satisfied over the breakup of Taliban with Al-Qaeda, US congress, intel community and the UN Sanctions committee have doubts. The talks on 90 days period of reduction of violence are going on, 3/9
it seems this issue will be also sorted out. In return Taliban will insist on the following big concessions: 1- Release of all their remaining prisoners. 2- Removal of Taliban from UN and other sanctions, blacklists etc. Ghani’s removal is no longer a key demand..4/9
from the Taliban, since most other key stakeholders have concluded he has to step down as a sacrifice for the process. If all the above go smoothly behind the scene; then the new date for Istanbul conference will be announced and the shared proposal of ...5/9
power-sharing transitional government will be discussed and probably agreed to as a new political arrangement with some minor modification; It is also possible that, the ToR of current RS mission might be changed to UN- Peace Keeping Forces with the addition of ..6/9
some forces from some Muslim Countries. It is also possible that Afghan Special Forces and the Taliban's Special Force Unit (Qeta-e-Surkh) would be set up under the umbrella of UN-peacekeeping forces under the auspices of the United Nations and the leadership of an ...7/9
Islamic country such as Turkey or another Islamic country to monitor the decisions/political arrangements of the Istanbul Conference. If none of the above transpire, Afghanistan will be dragged to a more intense crises and conflict with spillover effects to the region..8/9
and other parts of the world, including massive refugee flows to the region and Europe. 9/9
I hope it al result in a just and tolerant republic, where all Afghans can live in peace and harmony.
A rational roadmap which is consistent with the statements and actions of involved stakeholders. #Ghani is not an option & all parties agree on that . The question is now who would be the possible head of the new transition gov .....
Undoubtedly, a pashtoon would be the new head of state. Don't worry about it!
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