Let's play a little game together that I play every morning. I call it: POLLING IS TRASH. You ready? (Thread coming...)
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4/ So let's drill into it a little. I picked the CNBC Change Research poll first. You find the crosstabs, and you get to a PDF. It's 25 pages long: https://changeresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/CNBC-CR_National_Toplines_Wave-16_October-17-18-crosstabs.pdf …
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5/ So the first thing I do is I scroll to the VERY BOTTOM of the poll to look at who they speak to. And voila, what do we find? It skews left, duh! But wait... there's more...pic.twitter.com/TQPjbLLrXI
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6/ It breaks down even further than just "how did you vote in 2016" which isn't a very reliable metric. False recall can drastically affect those numbers. Usually in FAVOR of the incumbent. So if 44 said Hillary & 40 said Trump, the real Trump number is likely to be even lower.pic.twitter.com/g5tm4lTuf7
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7/ Now in that graphic above, you see the party breakdown. In total, 50% of those polled are Dems of some persuasion. Just 40% are Republicans.
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8/ The "Party ID" bear this out too. Bear in mind there's a small margin of error here... 8 pts more Dems than Republicans, which is like a 22% distinction...pic.twitter.com/gnGXj7IyGs
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9/ And finally, the allocation reveals the poll to be virtually useless. They quizzed 10pts more Dems than Republicans. What's Trump down by in this poll? 10%. And there you have it. Have a lovely day and don't believe the fake polls.pic.twitter.com/aiZP6OT3oy
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End of conversation
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I mean she won the National popular vote by 2.1
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