Raheem KassamVerified account

If you didn’t have worst case scenarios you wouldn’t have full mitigation. If you didn’t have full mitigation (or near) you’d have a lot more deaths. Look at the UK’s per capita deaths. That’s the result of a “herd immunity” delayed policy response.

As I explained on the radio show today, that’s because the models were based on data with death rates from a handful of countries and at the time they didn’t know to build in variables with Italy, for instance, regarding smoking. We still don’t know all aggravating factors.

Again, I’m not sure what you wanted estimates based off if not the confirmed rates, given that the world is dealing with a new virus and predominantly dodgy data from China.

How does one identify mild or asymptomatic infections, either geographically, or in the wider sense of being able to both react to and integrate such a phenomenon with no previous data as a guide star?