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The Imperial College expert reduced his estimated death rate by more than 10x compared to what he said it would be WITH social distancing measures like those implemented. This is because he got his entire numbers wrong from the very beginning. #coronavirus https://twitter.com/GarzaForce/status/1243258208140947457 …
You're quoting a WaPo write up which conflates mitigation with lockdown scenarios. The two aren't the same.
It's in the same report you cited, just a few pages further in. They said lockdown had to continue until a vaccine was developed, because it would come back as soon as lockdown was ended. This was why they originally recommended herd immunity. Today was a radical reversal.
I was the one who reported – before anyone else this side of the pond – about the herd immunity strategy, how it came about, and why it was horseshit and needed revising. Back then I took heat from followers for daring to "question the experts". But lots of us got it changed.
Imperial Report was the basis for "flattening the curve," with the same number of deaths spread out over a longer time frame. These new revisions drop the total deaths.
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