BREAKING: Washington, D.C. confirms new case of #coronavirus in the District.
The 23-year-old man attended the #CPAC conference.
http://mayor.dc.gov/release/corona …pic.twitter.com/ISn4izGhXQ
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Ummm… isn’t it outside the 14 day window? Meaning this person got it elsewhere & that the CPAC attendance is simply unrelated.
Nope. He was probably tested some point in the middle of last week given the 4-5 day result period. Which means he was 11/12 days out of CPAC. Also new evidence shows it can stick around for up to 37 days:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/abstract …
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Still, that puts the test late last week. The 14 day incubation often cited is far down the tail of the statistical distribution. Median incubation time is much shorter (5-ish days, last I heard). So while it’s possible this case is related to CPAC, it’s quite unlikely.
End of conversation
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What's total attendance at CPAC? North of 10K? Granted not all of them came in contact with the person, but how many cases have we heard are definitively connected to CPAC? Or suspected connected?
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I think you’re a bit confused between the incubation period & how long who catch the virus can shed it (are contagious). Also, since the median incubation is much shorter than the 14 days quoted, it’s statistically unlikely this case is related to CPAC. Possible, but unlikely.
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