┳┻| ┻┳| ┳┻| psst! hey kid! ┻┳| ┳┻| ┻┳| ┳┻| ┻┳| ┳┻| _ ┻┳| •.•) If impeachment is only ┳┻|⊂ノ feasible when the outcome ┻┳| is certain and there's no ┳┻| political risk, then ┻┳| impeachment is effectively ┳┻| nonexistent
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He gets a huge political W if he comes out unscathed and can use that to sail to reelection. His supporters aren't leaving him and therefore he only needs to convince a few others it was a Democratic hack job. Plenty will believe him.
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That’s the thing. I want to see how you calculated that. That conclusion is based on what?
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The calculation is "I made it up"
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I think it was Bruce Schneier who said that whenever someone explains a complete fuckup with “we took a calculated risk,” you should ask to see the calculations.
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Incumbent advantage and the conservative lean of the parts of the country he needs to get over the hump are what I think makes up that calculation. I'd say those are huge factors if he gets exonerated in helping him pick up swing votes.
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Incumbent advantage and the conservative lean of the country are not relevant to whether a failed impeachment helps or harms a President’s re-election chances. Your calculation is looking very shoddy so far.
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Yep, this is not a calculation. It's a guess, and not an especially good guess.
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My calculation is that even if impeachment doesn’t result in removal, it will serve to slow Trump and friends down in terms of current misdeeds and dissuade future misdeeds.
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