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Prikvačeni tweet
Trump’s 2016 path to the White House, which was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker, is probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate. Find out why Dems are poised to win the Electoral College http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/ …pic.twitter.com/7QWA90WOUD
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THIS. And the SC wall *may*crumble in response to it. One could argue it probably should unless Ds want a weak nominee. But Sanders underperformed toohttps://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1224864543769231361 …
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Ahhhh 66. VA I missed youpic.twitter.com/q6mp0zbcDa
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So glad to see
@germanrlopez put out this imp article which utilizes my tweet about how despite the delay in getting them- these will be the most reliable counts we’ve ever had from IA Iowahttps://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/4/21122149/iowa-democratic-caucuses-technical-issues-paper-trail …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
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Can’t wait for the Trump tweets about how the Dems purposefully delayed the Iowa Caucus results to ruin his state of the union
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And it’s warm!! Coming back from Iowa let me tell you- warm should not go underrated!!! Also lots of Starbuckshttps://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/1224726424193552385 …
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That’s alright
@jerry_jtaylor it helps me balance all the allegations against me that I’m a leftist commiehttps://twitter.com/jerry_jtaylor/status/1224837075347873793 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
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It’s also possible that contributed to lower than expected turnout.
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so is bc there was no youth turnout surge in IA. Or at least not a very big one. Oh yeah, should probably mention that along with all the major rules changes, party officials tell me today that many many precincts were moved to accommodate the anticipated turnout increases so
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Increases (VA Gov 2017 did though) and yet the generals went on to produce big turnout bumps. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in the regular primary states. One other point though is that the reason that Sanders is either going to lose to Buttigieg or come close to doing
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Turnout is that every major election since trump has produced at least a 10pt turnout bump. However, those were all generals- this was our first primary & it’s not even a “real” primary. I will say that almost none of the Dem primaries since Trump have produced large turnout
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A way to avoid responsibility for reaching such a big decision. But yeah, ultimately, I think it was the amorphous competition of this cycle compared to the 2 person competitions in ‘08 & ‘16. People should keep in mind a couple of things. The reason everyone predicted such high
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Are given too many choices some shut down. There may have also been a sense from voters of not wanting responsibility of choosing. One common theme in the polling has been that voters really want to beat trump but have no idea what kind of candidate best does it. Sitting out is
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And you have to assume there are some people that find the prospect of publicly dickering over their vote choices terrifying. This might have been compounded about worries among voters that there’d be divisiveness between supporters of diff candidates. We do know that when people
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Some thoughts on turnout. Def think impeachment & Super Bowl-as
@NateSilver538 opined-mattered, but mb more imp was the sense of too many choices & the prospect of having to endure a public process where your preference isn’t viable & then you must realign. That’s a weird dynamicPrikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Wow- if these numbers hold & Buttigieg wins Iowa outright this is a major blow to both Biden AND Sanders. Hard to see how Sanders wins nomination after losing Iowa
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I’m traveling all day so don’t have any access to TV news. Can anyone confirm, truly confirm, that CNN had to retract their Biden story? Also, if Biden is at 12ish%- that means he underperformed his polling estimates by 10pts. That is an unmitigated disaster folks. For polls too
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FYI: I’m probably going to hurtling through the air at 500+ mph at 35,000 ft when the IADs start releasing partial results. If I can $ access to the internet I will- & I’ll send the bill to IADs. But just in case I cant, you’ll know where I am.

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The numbers being reported by the Sanders campaign would mean massive momentum for
@PeteButtigieg and utter disaster for@JoeBidenHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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