Roberto Perli

@R_Perli

Founding Partner and Head of Global Policy Research, Cornerstone Macro. Former Federal Reserve senior staff member.

Washington, DC
Vrijeme pridruživanja: siječanj 2020.

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  1. prije 10 sati

    The recent drop in prices is affecting investors' view of inflation. Not only are breakeven very low. The inflation risk premium is near record lows and negative, suggesting dis- risk. This helps explain low .

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  2. prije 12 sati

    More than the engaging in operations not seen since the crisis, which was the right thing to do, what is alarming is that it didn’t realize it shrank its balance sheet too much leading to September. If they don’t know how much liquidity is needed, who does?

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  3. prije 17 sati

    Many equity investors ask me whether the will do away with negative as a result of its upcoming policy review. The answer is most likely no, judging from this ECB staff paper: . For my full note: info@cormacteam.com.

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  4. prije 21 sat

    Good Bloomberg piece with reference to my work -- thanks . The Fed is not close to cutting rates at the moment, but it will if it has to. And if it cuts, it won't be late and will cut more than the market expects.

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  5. 4. velj

    The inverts because the market perceives the Fed as being done tightening and/or likely to cut. The Fed is done tightening before a recession. Therefore an inversion precedes a . But it says nothing about the timing of recession: Not very useful.

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  6. 4. velj

    Indeed, the last couple of days, Fed repo operations have picked up, a bit. But overall, total cash injections have been roughly flat for a while. Fed has stopped incrementally supporting equities the past month and a half.

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  7. 4. velj

    The question is, what can the BOJ do with already very low and negative? Monetary policy is a lot less effective in these circumstances.

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  8. 3. velj

    Good piece. But we need to remember that Chairman of the Fed Board (President's choice, subject to Senate confirmation) is not the same thing as chair (FOMC choice). Traditionally they have been the same, but the doesn't have to get along with creative choices.

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  9. 3. velj

    The JPM global PMI index out today showed an uptick in January. Normally that would push term premiums and Treasury higher. But the market is already discounting the effect. I wouldn't count on a big bounce in rates unless the virus is contained soon.

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  10. 3. velj

    The (just like the ) will tweak its inflation targeting framework -- it is currently too stringent. Unfortunately, it's too late to avoid the lower bound trap, but better late than never.

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  11. 3. velj

    Just looking at the share of China's economy on global GDP is eye opening. China's weight has increased almost 4 times since the SARS epidemics of 2003. will have a material economic impact.

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  12. 3. velj

    The market expects Fed rate cuts because of . The bar for cuts is coming down for sure. But if the Fed cuts, it will likely cut more than the market expects. Treasury are likely to head lower if the virus is not contained soon, in spite of today's moves.

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  13. 31. sij

    Ten-year rate are 1.51% today, and thirty-year at 2.00%. We will be Japan even without unless policy changes: it’s just a matter of time. None of the presidential candidates are talking about how to deal with this. And central bankers can’t get past old ideas.

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  14. 31. sij

    History suggests that health scares (eg, the ) move and in the expected direction, but not by massive amounts and not for long periods. However, China is a lot bigger than it used to be: Tread carefully. For the whole presentation: info@cormacteam.com.

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  15. 31. sij

    Inflation expectations are in a downward trend. Declining expectations will push an already low neutral rate even lower and trap the and US near zero, since hiking above neutral risks . If nothing is done, the US is the next Japan.

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  16. 31. sij

    Between this statement and the other that the Fed is trying to bring inflation up toward 2%, it doesn’t make much sense that the 2021 and 2022 dots show rate hikes.

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  17. 30. sij

    Yes, the inverted again, but no reason to panic yet. It inverted squarely because of fears (, ), not because of concerns of . In fact, US growth expectations embedded in yields are improving a bit (see chart).

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  18. 30. sij

    Powell made it clear yesterday that the is more dovish than the market thought and unlikely to raise rates in this cycle -- it wants higher inflation. Market expectations are already adjusting and should help keep low. For full note: info@cormacteam.com.

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  19. 29. sij

    This is the crucial monetary policy issue for the next decade, and the answers that current and former Fed officials are coming up with are inadequate. Traditional monetary policy when rates are low and expected to stay low doesn't work. Chart from

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  20. 29. sij

    Powell confirms the plan to slow bill purchases during Q2. Temporary open market operations will continue to slow down as well, creating fewer reserves. Reserve creation was a tailwind for cyclical and financial stocks, and that tailwind will dissipate.

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