is there any non-correlational evidence that obesity is unhealthy?
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(some excess weight is old age is proxy for not being sick from cancer or other major health problems, so it sort of signals good health even if it's probably not protective in and of itself)
(Also, BMI is ultimately a proxy for what we really care about, i.e., adiposity and particularly visceral fat. People with higher BMIs because they have more bone and muscle mass aren't presumed to be at higher risk -- quite the contrary.)