Excellent question. Don't think we'll ever have a good answer. However, the sales of enslaved men and women was robust during the Civil War.
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Southern political slave power drops. Without the expansion of slavery the slave owners would lose the potential 3/5 a slave could be counted toward representation, in potential areas of expansion & thus in D.C. They needed to expand to protect political power & gain more.
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That certainly seems to have been a fear.
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Hard to say. Containment would have increased slave values to some degree. Same way it did when African trade was stopped.
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Which was why some folks wanted to reopen the import trade, lower the price of slaves, and make them more affordable to more whites.
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