Rashid Abdi

The polls have been delayed 3 times and almost certain it will be again. Mogadishu has just woken up to fact ex-militant Robow has commanding lead and likely to be next president of SWS in a free context.

The FGS game plan is to move on 3 fronts to thwart Robow's ambition: create a climate of unrest, fluidity in Baidoa; inflame/mobilise fear of Robow locally and regionally (portray him a wolf in sheepskin, unrepentant Salafist); create legal obstacles in his path.

The latter point is important: Robow has not gone through the government's full defector programme to vet and rehabilitate ex-Shabaabs. This can be held against him.

The fear of Robow is now being voiced in East Africa. Ethiopia is the strongest critic of Robow. Kenya seems ambivalent.

The desire to b;lock Robow at all cost seems ill-advised. Robow's Salafism and his unstated Islamists ambitions are a problem, sure. But you could say that of many other figures in and out of government.

Somalia's powerful Islamists prefer "strategic ambiguity" or outright dissimulation to disguise their ambition. The claim there is a contest between Islamists and secularists in Somalia is false.

Power has a way of turning revolutionaries into ordinary and often inept politicians - whether Islamists or secularists.

If you lock Robow out a narrative will emerge that yet again an Islamist utopia was thwarted. This certainly radicalise another generation.

Trusting him with leadership will strengthen his pragmatic instincts, mellow his Salafism, incentivise good behavior.