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RARohde's profile
Dr. Robert Rohde
Dr. Robert Rohde
Dr. Robert Rohde
@RARohde

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Dr. Robert Rohde

@RARohde

Lead Scientist @BerkeleyEarth. Physics PhD, data nerd, and cancer survivor. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, and air quality issues.

Zurich, Switzerland
Joined January 2017

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    1. Dr. Robert Rohde‏ @RARohde 26 Mar 2020

      THREAD Let's look at COVID-19 case progression in South Korea. South Korea's remarkable testing program (365,000 tested so far) continues to look effective at bending the curve, and the number of active cases continues to fall. Though total cases continue to grow by ~100/day.pic.twitter.com/fkZozj39Vv

      8 replies 183 retweets 323 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Dr. Robert Rohde‏ @RARohde 26 Mar 2020

      With a little bit of math it is possible to use the reported time series of cases, deaths, and recoveries to estimate the average case trajectory in South Korea. In other words, from the time someone is diagnosed how long does it take for the case to be resolved. 2/pic.twitter.com/JS0e94gyRx

      2 replies 9 retweets 44 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Dr. Robert Rohde‏ @RARohde 26 Mar 2020

      First, a word of caution, these empirical estimates of case progression are less precise and reliable than doing a comprehensive case review; however, available case progression data has mostly been limited to small samples right now, e.g. https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930566-3 … 3/

      1 reply 4 retweets 32 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Dr. Robert Rohde‏ @RARohde 26 Mar 2020

      So what is the empirically estimated case progression telling us? Firstly, COVID-19 is not a particularly quick illness. After diagnosis, <10% of patients clear the virus within 2 weeks. Though ~75% will recover within 25 days. 4/

      2 replies 33 retweets 68 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Dr. Robert Rohde‏ @RARohde 26 Mar 2020

      With that profile, if a government's primary response is a generalized shutdown, then it will likely take many weeks to interrupt transmission. Though with widespread testing and targeted isolation, that timetable can probably be accelerated. 5/

      3 replies 14 retweets 43 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Dr. Robert Rohde‏ @RARohde 26 Mar 2020

      Another important point, people in South Korea are still dying 3 and 4 weeks after being diagnosed with COVID-19. 6/pic.twitter.com/s588SMa0HQ

      2 replies 37 retweets 90 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Dr. Robert Rohde‏ @RARohde 26 Mar 2020

      A couple of weeks ago, people were excited that South Korea was only showing a 0.6% case-fatality rate. Today that rate has risen to 1.4%, and the progression analysis suggests that it could still rise over 2%. 7/

      2 replies 61 retweets 126 likes
      Show this thread
      Dr. Robert Rohde‏ @RARohde 26 Mar 2020

      Because South Korea has tested extensively, they provide one of the best benchmarks of COVID-19's true mortality rate. If South Korea's case-fatality rate really does climb over 2%, that will be a grim prediction for the rest of the world. 8/8

      12:34 PM - 26 Mar 2020
      • 98 Retweets
      • 211 Likes
      • Jeremy Mion Alexander Blinne Judith Sissener Catherine Young Oqaqiq 😷 kutz Bella aphil Matteo Turri
      12 replies 98 retweets 211 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Sports and Stuff‏ @SportsandStuf19 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @RARohde

          Robert, is there a chart like this or Italy and the US?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Ross Cowie‏ @kitchencone 28 Mar 2020
          Replying to @SportsandStuf19 @RARohde

          1/2 Here's a Daily Growth % Rate chart for Italypic.twitter.com/uFR8lHN6CQ

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Nichol Brummer 🐰 🍨 🍨‏ @Twundit 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @RARohde

          Nichol Brummer 🐰 🍨 🍨 Retweeted Jeremy Howard

          check this out: the effect of face masks, even simple handmade ones, if everybody wears one. Chechya is convinced.https://twitter.com/jeremyphoward/status/1242894378441506816 …

          Nichol Brummer 🐰 🍨 🍨 added,

          Jeremy Howard @jeremyphoward
          The Czech Republic went from zero mask usage to 100% in 10 days, and in the process they halted the growth of new covid-19 cases. How? They made their own! They didn't need government help; they did it themselves. It's time for #masks4all. See why: https://youtu.be/BoDwXwZXsDI  1/
          Show this thread
          1 reply 5 retweets 9 likes
        3. hbd chick‏ @hbdchick 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Twundit

          not chechnya. the czech republic.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Peter Ellis‏ @pjie2 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @RARohde

          A note on the CFR here: it has been widely reported that the virus initially spread among young female adherents of one particular church. They then presumably took it home and spread it to friends/families/neighbours with a more representative age distribution.

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        3. Peter Ellis‏ @pjie2 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @pjie2 @RARohde

          So the people who got it later are also the ones more likely to die - this would presumably explain the deaths continuing to rise.

          2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Jory Soderman‏ @Joryls 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @RARohde

          And they have been able to treat everyone. We won’t be.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Stormageddon, Dark Lord of All‏ @Stormageddon666 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @RARohde

          I sincerely hope that South Korea's case fatality rate overestimates the true mortality rate. I really, really do. It's a grim prediction, indeed.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. みたま 🇯🇵‏ @int_independent 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @RARohde @marcelsalathe

          Nope. Think about he rate of false positive and false negative of PCR testing. The data is not reliable.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Leland Crane‏ @crane_leland 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @RARohde

          I don’t think you’ve told us enough to understand how you are estimating the duration distribution from inflows and outflows? Are you assuming a Poisson process for resolution?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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