and I wrote about the course of the war since March. We argue that Ukraine's successes in Kherson and Kharkiv in the fall were largely due to the losses inflicted on Russian forces during the battle for the Donbas in the spring and summer.
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Rob Lee
@RALee85
PhD student . Senior Fellow . Previously , , . Focused on Russian defense policy.
Joined November 2015
Rob Lee’s Tweets
Tank crews from the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been quick to master the controls of the mighty Challenger 2 this week.
The UK is providing Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine to help them defend their homeland and retake territory.
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦
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GeoConfirmed UKR.
"A second Russian Artic TOR-M2 was destroyed in Kherson Oblast"
46.7088667, 33.1569130
between Krynky and Pischane, left bank Kherson
GeoLocated by @intel_pigeon twitter.com/bayraktar_1lov…
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Another Russian Tor-M2DT air defense system was destroyed by a presumed Excalibur precision-guided artillery round.
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A Russian 3rd Motorized Rifle Division T-72 tank (T-72AV?) driving past a Ukrainian position it didn’t notice or thought was destroyed. A soldier hits the tank with an RPG-7 but the round glances off the turret. Good example of why tanks need infantry.
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A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile that crashed or was shot down in Vinnytsia on January 29.
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Starshe Eddy positively talks about Lancet loitering munitions and thinks regular line units need them for counter-battery missions, not just spetsnaz units. He thinks the Russian military needs far more of them comparing them to ATGMs. 104/
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Sasha Popov was a veteran of the GRU's 16th Spetsnaz Brigade and served in an OMON unit as a sapper. He volunteered to rejoin the military but was declined because of a criminal record. He was killed near Bakhmut in December fighting for Wagner.
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Videos of two more likely Excalibur strikes on a Russian D-20 and Giatinst-S in Kherson Oblast. 2/
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Russian fighters are using a 23mm 2A14 anti-aircraft cannon from a ZU-23-2 to fire at Ukrainian positions with the aid of a thermal optic.
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Video of artillery strikes on a Russian D-30 howitzer near Hola Prystan, Kherson Oblast by Ukraine's 406th Artillery Brigade. Presumably with Excalibur precision-guided artillery rounds.
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A 93rd Mechanized Brigade T-64BV tank with additional armor between the turret and hull.
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Video of Russian tanks (including a T-72B3M) and artillery fire on Marinka and possibly other urban areas. The last video shows thermite and TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS also being used.
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“I have no moral right to ask Ukrainians for forgiveness. I can’t forgive myself, so I can’t expect them to forgive me.” A former Russian army officer tells us about crimes he says he saw Russian soldiers committing in Ukraine, including torture & looting. Producer @BBCWillVernon
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Starshe Eddy again says that BMPT tank support combat vehicles are proving to be effective when working with tanks, particularly at night. 32/
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The Grey Zone channel mentions a Lancet strike on a Ukrainian M109 howitzer in the Kupyansk area that failed to penetrate. Likely talking about the video from above. 103/
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A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crashed in Kalmykia near the Caspian Sea and was destroyed by a controlled detonation by Russian sappers.
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Regarding the SVCh Chukavin, Lobaev questions whether it makes sense if it is chambered in 7.62x54/51mm since it would have been cheaper to modernize SVD. He suggests that its adoption was related to lobbying and that finding 338 LM rounds is a problem.
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He says the 144th Motorized Rifle Division set up experimental sniper platoons in the spring on the Izyum front, and that the approach to snipers has changed from the Soviet method of giving minimal training to soldiers with SVD. 2/
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Posts about Russian snipers. The Pacific Fleet's naval infantry brigades set up a heavy sniper team in April for counter-sniper work and engaging targets at >1km. Starshe Eddy says mobilized men are serving successfully as snipers.
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Video of a snipers from the UFSIN Viking spetsnaz unit and 144th Motorized Rifle Division with Lobaev Arms LAR-10 and TSVL-8 M1 Stalingrad rifles.
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A Ukrainian UAV rigged to carry not just mortar rounds but also a TM-62 anti-tank mine.
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Video of a Rosgvardia 120mm 2B11 Sani mortar crew operating from a BMP-1.
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Replying to @RALee85
This is not Wagner. BTR-MDM from the 106 air assault division
51 and 137 regiments are fighting there.
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Video of an artillery strike by Ukraine's 44th Artillery Brigade on a Russian T-80BV tank. Based on the paint scheme, it is likely from the 127th Motorized Rifle Division.
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Video of Wagner fighters in Klishchiivka near Bakhmut. Interestingly, they're using a BTR-MDM vehicle typically used by the VDV.
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Vuhledar, 02.02 - 03:00 AM update:
1/4 A few days ago, I wrote that the enemy made a few interesting decisions. I would like to shed some light on it. After the first two days of the assault, it became clear to RU command that their plan of a rapid and sudden assault has failedShow this thread
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Video of Russian naval infantry BMP-3 and Grad MLRS, and 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade T-72B3 with improvised armor, TOS-1A, MT-LB, and Tor systems in the Vuhledar area. 6/
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Central Military District motorized rifle troops training with BMP-2 and T-90M. 53/
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Video of Lancet loitering munition strikes on an M109A36 howitzer in Kupyansk and another near Vuhledar. Unclear how much damage they did. 102/
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Videos of three Lancet loitering munition strikes on M777 howitzers in the Kreminna area posted last week. 101/
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Russian TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS strikes in the Vuhledar area.
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A Russian 2S4 Tyulpan 240mm mortar firing a Smelchak precision-guided round. 2/
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Video of a Russian Shturm-S ATGM carrier in the Svatove area.
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Video of a Ka-52 helicopter conducting a test flight in the Far East with a an export President-S DIRCM and in light camouflage. Presumably, designed for a Middle Eastern customer.
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Video posted two weeks ago of a Russian T-72B3 tank with a roof screen in Kherson Oblast.
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Video of a tank and members of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade in the Vuhledar area. 5/
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A Russian FAB-500 high-explosive bomb dropped on a Ukrainian position that didn’t detonate.
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