Rob Lee

@RALee85

PhD student . Senior Fellow . Previously , , , and . Focused on Russian defense policy.

Joined November 2015
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Jan 18

    My argument regarding Russia's behavior: 1) Moscow switched from deterrence to compellence 2) The key issue is Moscow believes Kyiv will remain hostile and is increasing its defensive capabilities 3) the costs of inaction are greater than an escalation

    800 replies . 2,659 retweets 9,156 likes
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  2. 1 minute ago

    Worth noting that a long-term occupation of more Ukrainian territory comes with serious risks and costs for Russia. It has committed the vast majority of its ground units to the war in Ukraine. The Russian military isn't in a great position to respond to other crises.

    5 retweets 17 likes
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  3. 6 minutes ago

    It seems Russia's goals in Ukraine have gone through three phases: 1) Regime change (probably lasted through the first 1-2 weeks) 2) Compellence 3) Medium to long-term occupation of more Ukrainian territory

    Vladimir Putin has lost interest in diplomatic efforts to end the war, according to three people briefed on conversations with the Russian president. Instead, he appears set on seizing as much Ukrainian territory as possible. New, with :
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    14 replies . 42 retweets 151 likes
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  4. 23 minutes ago

    406/

    Major Artyom Lazarenko was the operations officer for the 439th Rocket Artillery Brigade armed with Smerch MLRS. He was killed in Kherson on March 15.
    7 replies . 5 retweets 67 likes
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  5. 26 minutes ago

    Major Artyom Lazarenko was the operations officer for the 439th Rocket Artillery Brigade armed with Smerch MLRS. He was killed in Kherson on March 15.

    30 replies . 42 retweets 279 likes
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  6. 43 minutes ago

    2053/

    0:40
    Ukrainian SOF firing a buggy-mounted 9M111 Fagot ATGM
    9 replies . 20 retweets 147 likes
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  7. 48 minutes ago

    2052/

    0:07
    Video of a Russian Tigr vehicle with two Vystrels.
    2 replies . 6 retweets 37 likes
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  8. 48 minutes ago

    2051/

    0:11
    : As a few of the NLAW launchers delivered to Ukraine by the UK have ran into battery issues (Running out too fast, or not functioning well in the cold), well, as ever, local forces are coming up with solutions.
    6 replies . 12 retweets 104 likes
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  9. 11 hours ago

    An additional point. MANPADS are still an issue for Russian helicopters near the front lines, but it isn't clear how strong Ukraine's short and medium-range air defenses are near the Donbas. Russia's ability to conduct air strikes effectively could be critical.

    28 replies . 79 retweets 904 likes
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  10. 11 hours ago

    Video of a Russian Tigr vehicle with two Vystrels.

    8 replies . 34 retweets 193 likes
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  11. 11 hours ago

    I wrote about the fight in the Donbas. I think Russia will likely have some tactical successes but it will be slow, costly, and probably won't lead to strategic gains. Attrition is already a problem, and it will limit what the Russian military can achieve.

    106 replies . 697 retweets 3,458 likes
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  12. 11 hours ago

    1165/

    0:45
    A Ukrainian BTR-4E vehicle firing its 30mm cannon at Russian troops.
    8 replies . 65 retweets 433 likes
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  13. 11 hours ago

    2050/

    0:07
    Low-flying Russian Su-25 over the Donbas.
    5 replies . 31 retweets 110 likes
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  14. 11 hours ago

    2049/

    0:23
    Russian BM-27 Uragan MLRS firing on Ukrainian positions in the Lyman area.
    3 replies . 20 retweets 88 likes
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  15. 11 hours ago

    2048/

    This appears to be the Polish Warmate loitering munition - AFAIK, Ukraine has obtained some before the war and might have received more after the war started. With their 40km range, they should be quite effective.
    1 reply . 5 retweets 78 likes
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  16. 11 hours ago

    Another video of DNR troops and Russian naval infantrymen using a BTR-82A for cover in Mariupol from April 18. 3/

    10 replies . 75 retweets 159 likes
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  17. 11 hours ago

    Russian BM-27 Uragan MLRS firing on Ukrainian positions in the Lyman area.

    20 replies . 76 retweets 189 likes
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  18. 11 hours ago

    Low-flying Russian Su-25 over the Donbas.

    11 replies . 52 retweets 206 likes
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  19. 12 hours ago

    A Ukrainian BTR-4E vehicle firing its 30mm cannon at Russian troops.

    416 replies . 1,909 retweets 13,807 likes
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  20. 12 hours ago

    2047/

    2:01
    Video of Russian forces using a UR-77 mine-clearing line charge in Rubizhne.
    4 replies . 16 retweets 94 likes
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  21. 12 hours ago

    1164/

    0:44
    A captured Russian Msta-S howitzer being loaded onto a trailer.
    5 replies . 35 retweets 372 likes
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