We are at one of those saddlepoints where suddenly the payoffs of different evolutionary strategies diverges widely (but no one knows which way)
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
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Replying to @toad_spotted
yeah i think we’re thinking on the same lines (but i don’t get your exact pt about monogamy - isn’t that true of *any* strategy?)
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
Eh, not exactly. I'm thinking of fertility as providing information to each partner on whether to cooperate or defect. There is much more uncertainty about the fertility of other potential partners, so each just goes by physical appearance.
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Replying to @toad_spotted
first off, you could have tfr = 1 where 1% of population is (monog, 8kids) and the other 99% is (promisc, <1kid)
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
Sure; in actual terms it's unlikely that becoming promiscuous will result in higher fertility now. I'm thinking more in evolutionary psych/ pre-birth control terms; implicitly, Emma Bovary and Anna Karenina would each make less sense to the reader if they had 3 kids instead of 1.
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Replying to @toad_spotted
huh you know i’m getting the sense that you think there is “the one thing” that makes monogamy an ESS and i’m missing entirely what that is
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
monogamy= ESS if expected decrease in existing/future expected legitimate offsprings' fitness (divided by two) due to cheating/reduced parental investment>expected increase in the parents' fitness due to cheating. Two or <can't be an ESS because it is below replacement fertility.
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Replying to @toad_spotted
is it possible you’re conflating defecting from a marriage (a 2player game) with defecting from the monogamy-strategy (a n-player coordination game at the population level)?
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fair enough but there is a big difference between comparative statics whereby polygamists replace monogamists and “ “ where sustained cooperation becomes impossible and rewards to monogamy fall
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