German I don't think can be considered an "early" branch in any model b/c it has affinities to Baltic phon and Indo-Iranic lex, so no matter how you draw it, (german, baltic, slavic, indo-iranic) are on the same branch Tocharian is weird
If Tocharian is Afanasievo it definitely can't be "more related to Italo-Celtic" or whatever b/c that branch is related to a geographic dispersion that happened much, much later