You saw the Arun Kant prediction, right?
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Replying to @RoseRedAgain @ptcarlo
There was one guy (prolly an outlier) who claimed his models had LePen at closely trailing 2nd round-
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-but that model was using polling data he expected to change after she won Round 1, giving LePen win
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(iow, he is predicting a LePen win conditional on his predictions for the daily tracking data)
7:58 PM - 25 Feb 2017
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