The way Trump is using the lame-duck period to bully corporations with threats about his future policies is insidiously brilliant
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
Execs think "if the proposed bill fails, I'll have to do X; if it passes, I'll have to do Y; X > Y; so I oppose the bill"
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
And so they go whine to their congressmen about how much money they could lose if they have to do Y, promise some donations...
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
But! here's the thing: X > Y doesn't mean that, once you have already started doing Y, it's profitable to do X.
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
There are fixed costs, lots of contracts to sign, "pipelines". Once you start Y, Y may be forced even if bill fails
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
And if other companies haven't done Y, and you're stuck in low-profit Y while competitors do X, you're actually in big trouble
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
Exec is meh on Y, but he evaluates Y only cuz that's genuinely best choice IF the bill passes. So now he wants bill to pass!
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Replying to @QuasLacrimas
If Trump can terrify a sufficient number of companies that they decide doing Y later isn't enough, they need to start Y now,
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then the whole political calculus of corporations for his protectionist bills/against his protectionist bills shifts.
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