This is an important dynamic in explaining revolutionary waveshttps://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/1048036036499202048 …
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what holds these clusters of admirers (wannabes, basically) back is recognition of how weird the first example was
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the first is *always* an outlier; and it also always exploits unforeseen loopholes that are now closed; and plus all the VIPs will swear up and down *no one* could have predicted, totally fluke, etc
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thus there’s an internal tension in these clusters between a desire to emulate and the suspicion that it the circumstances are too different, it would be LARPing
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the second example proves the first wasn’t an anomaly if the third follows closely on the second, that proves “present conditions” not only permit repeat performance, but are actually hospitable
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at that point you get a wave, many of which are delusional and doomed, but some succeed on their merits, a few more perhaps by luck — still others b/c the successful revolutions help stragglers, or at least disrupt the external stability/aid neighbors could otherwise draw on
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They also disrupt something else - the equilibrium of expectations that ties together a stable ruling class This is easiest to understand when the hegemon gets offed, and then all its puppets are paralyzed b/c all their contingency plans relied on their sponsor
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But that is just a special case of “rules ppl expect to rely on in protecting their turf evaporate”; when the rule is just “ppl like us always win in the end”, that causes paralysis too!
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regimes always rely on promises of future favors to recruit their coalitions, that assumes they’ll be distributing favor in the future, that assumes they’ll win
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when they face the problem not just of rallying the boys against a bunch of desperate, arrogant scoundrels, but of convincing them - no, of figuring out who *needs to be convinced* they can still win: paralysis it’s not an easy problem to solve.
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if they’ve never thought about it before they might just give up - or might not even realize if they don’t act, it’s already too late - or might just abandon ship and cut their own losses
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this is a problem that exists all up and down the hierarchy of w/e grp is defending some status quo; the foreign minister doesn’t want to be on the train to switzerland with a briefcase of bearer bonds if the police chief and the king stay firm
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... but he also doesn’t want to be dictating orders in his offices when the king and the police chief have already crossed the border
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The first revolution is absurd and unpredictable; the first wave of imitators creates an experience closer to vertigo, as ppl whipsaw b/w “impossible!” and “inevitable!”
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what i say about the many levels of defenders of a status quo applies to the levels, layers, perspectives of the challengers as well
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what I’m outlining here is the simplest possible model of a very complex phenomenon if you can actually grasp how it’s simple, you can see how it apply it; but if not...
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for example; what was the first novelty (the original “model”) that inaugurated the age of Trump? Trump’s victory? Which - November or May? Or had it already happened before the first primary, in December? (Was it maybe Brexit, that summer? - Or not something political at all?)
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there’s no right answer; different ppl see different problems, and different chokepoints and time-horizons of stability. depending on which aspect is salient to your model of the status quo, you notice different acts as novelties, improbable triumphs
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so the whole dissident right is like the scales on a snake, overlapping in their models of what is exemplary, admirable, maybe imitable; but each oriented at a slightly different angle, towards a different aspect of the ruling class
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End of conversation
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