In your opinion, what is the most likely solution to the Fermi Paradox?
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i was partly convinced that this was somewhat overstating the case, but: bad statistics
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it's ludicrous how few people know about this paper, so, friendly reminder that the fermi paradox was completely resolved in 2018 and it turned out to be because multiplying point estimates of highly uncertain parameters is very bad actually
arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404
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i like this answer because it is not at all sexy. you can't construct a short story based on this premise
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which is probably why it's made so little observable impact on the discourse 😅
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Isn't this paper saying "you can't multiply probabilities you're uncertain about to get a probability"? Isn't that sort of a non sequitur to the question raised above which to me is more asking "which term in drake's equation are we actually wrong about"?
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Overstated the case, nevertheless important contribution
Variables completely unaccounted for too no doubt as we learn what makes earth unique
Most of the parameters in their models come without justifications
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