everything about statistics seems so sus - like law of large numbers, wtf? who's making that happen?
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it helped a lot for me to learn about large deviations inequalities. you can pretty precisely quantify how unlikely it is for a large number of iid samples from a distribution to deviate significantly from the original distribution. it’s wacky stuff
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iid, as always, doing a lot of work there
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for sure. it sounds like an innocent assumption but it's really not. actually quite hard to give a satisfying account of like, why we expect coin tosses or dice rolls to be even approximately iid
yeah just in the last few years I've gotten really suspicious of it
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hmm this is actually quite relevant to like, understanding the "but it's just random" counterargument to tarot and such
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