i was going to avoid twitter until the new year as a bit but i'm back on two days early to ask everyone for their opinions about the new COVID strain. i don't mean to be that guy but uh
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LW thread, probably ignore the title but who knows idk:
lesswrong.com/posts/CHtwDXy6
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That post is excessive. The key info is that the new strain has three differences on the spike protein, which the mRNA vaccines encode. The Modern & Pfizer people think the structural differences are not material enough to impact vaccine effectiveness. (1/2)
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Further, there is little sign of the new strain is becoming dominant in other countries, like it did in the UK. This seems to suggest that there is not *that* much difference in transmissibility. So more (ok in parts) discussion here: old.reddit.com/r/slatestarcod
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Interesting read, but the writer seems to miss the point of academic papers. 😅
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FWIW, in Kent, which is basically ground zero for the new variant, cases have levelled off and are probably declining a bit (Christmas has screwed up testing for the last few days). In some of the local hotspots there they are definitely declining. So it's not unstoppable.